Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moving mostly lower since 7:45 AM on April 18;- Broken below a descending triangle on 6-minute chart; 61.8% extension target near 2698.75 is achieved; 100% extension target is near 2695.50
- Odds are for a down move – watch for break above 2708.00 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due
- Unemployment Claims (232K vs. 230K est.) at 8:30 AM
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (23.2 vs. 20.8 est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher
- European markets are mostly up – Germany and Switzerland are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- EUR/USD
- USD/JPY
- GBP/USD
- USD/INR
|
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Silver
- Platinum
- Sugar
- Coffee
|
- NatGas
- Gold
- Copper
- Palladium
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.902%, up from April 18 close of 2.867%;
- 30-years is at 3.0890%, up from 3.046%
- 2-years yield is at 2.444%, up from 2.431%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.458, up from 0.436
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2703.63, 2692.05 and 2676.38
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2717.50, 2739.14 and 2750.64
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2708.00, the high at 7:30 AM and break below 2692.50, the low of 9:30 AM on April 17
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2708.25 and the index closed at 2708.64 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2709.75 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.50; Dow by -62.00; and NASDAQ by -26.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
- Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
- A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A red doji candle with small lower and upper shadows;
- Nearing the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle;
- Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00; retracing from a resistance near 2719.00 level
- Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
- RSI-9 moving up, second leg, since 2:00 PM on April 13; above 80
- At 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Break above an ascending triangle continues; 100% extension target near 2720.00 is achieved; 161.8% extension target is near 2756.00; forming a round top
- Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
- RSI is mostly declining from a high of 70.48 at 7:30 AM on April 18; moving around 40 since 2:30 AM
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down or curving down since 12:30 AM on April 18
- Breaking below a descending triangle; the 61.8% extension target is near 2694.50 and 100% extension target is near 2689.00
- The band narrowed during Asian session and expanding since 2:00 AM
- RSI is mostly moving around 40 since 3:15 AM
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is mostly below 50 since midnight
- Bias: Up-Side
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday April 18 in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in higher volume. Most major indices made doji like candle.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Heath Care
|
- Consumer Staples
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday April 18 in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in higher volume. Most major indices made doji like candle.
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