Morning Notes – Friday April 20, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are little changed; moving  higher since 3:30 AM;
  • Forming a W14 pattern as named by Arthur Merrill
  • Odds are for an up move – watch for break below 2690.25 for change of fortunes
  • No key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed lower
  • European markets are mixed – U.K., France, Spain and Italy are up; Germany, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.929%, up from April 19 close of 2.914%;
    • 30-years is at 3.120%, up from 3.105%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.437%, up from 2.436%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.492, up from 0.478

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2681.90, 2676.38 and 2665.16
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2698.79, 2702.84 and 2708.51
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2698.25, the high at 7:00 AM and break below 2690.25, the low of 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2693.25 and the index closed at 2693.13 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2693.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is little changed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00; Dow down by -10.00; and NASDAQ down by -11.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Dn-Side
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
  • Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A red candle with almost no upper shadow and lower shadow equal to the real body; %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is crossing below %D from over 95; touched 20-day EMA
  • Near the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle;
  • Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00; retracing from a resistance near 2719.00 level
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 declined from a high of 86.11 at 6:00 AM on April 18 to a low of 18.44  by 12:00 PM on April 19; rising since then
  • At/below 20-bar EMA and at EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Declining from a high of 2718.50 at 7:30 AM on April 18 in a rounding top pattern; forming a ‘W’ pattern, which Arthur Merrill named as W14, a bullish pattern
  • Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • RSI started to rise from a low of 17.46 at 1:00 PM on April 19, then dipped  from just above 50 to 31.66 and then again started to rise; above 50 and at highest level since 1:00 PM on April 19
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on April 19 after trending down from 12:30 AM on April 18
  • Broke below a descending triangle; achieved 100% extension target and came very near 161.8% extension target
  • The band narrowed during Asian session and is expanding since 2:45 AM
  • RSI is moving up from a low of 23.16 at 3:30 AM, touched 65 and is above 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed over %D just above 25
  • Bias: Dn-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday April 19 in lower volume. Most major indices are making a three-candle evening star pattern. Also, the %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is crossing below %D.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Finance
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Technology
  6. Utility
  7. Heath Care
  8. Real Estate
  9. Telecom