Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are little changed; moving higher since 3:30 AM;
- Forming a W14 pattern as named by Arthur Merrill
- Odds are for an up move – watch for break below 2690.25 for change of fortunes
- No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed lower
- European markets are mixed – U.K., France, Spain and Italy are up; Germany, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Copper
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.929%, up from April 19 close of 2.914%;
- 30-years is at 3.120%, up from 3.105%
- 2-years yield is at 2.437%, up from 2.436%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.492, up from 0.478
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2681.90, 2676.38 and 2665.16
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2698.79, 2702.84 and 2708.51
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2698.25, the high at 7:00 AM and break below 2690.25, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2693.25 and the index closed at 2693.13 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2693.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is little changed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00; Dow down by -10.00; and NASDAQ down by -11.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Dn-Side
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
- Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
- A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A red candle with almost no upper shadow and lower shadow equal to the real body; %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is crossing below %D from over 95; touched 20-day EMA
- Near the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle;
- Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00; retracing from a resistance near 2719.00 level
- Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
- RSI-9 declined from a high of 86.11 at 6:00 AM on April 18 to a low of 18.44 by 12:00 PM on April 19; rising since then
- At/below 20-bar EMA and at EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Declining from a high of 2718.50 at 7:30 AM on April 18 in a rounding top pattern; forming a ‘W’ pattern, which Arthur Merrill named as W14, a bullish pattern
- Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
- RSI started to rise from a low of 17.46 at 1:00 PM on April 19, then dipped from just above 50 to 31.66 and then again started to rise; above 50 and at highest level since 1:00 PM on April 19
- At/above 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on April 19 after trending down from 12:30 AM on April 18
- Broke below a descending triangle; achieved 100% extension target and came very near 161.8% extension target
- The band narrowed during Asian session and is expanding since 2:45 AM
- RSI is moving up from a low of 23.16 at 3:30 AM, touched 65 and is above 50
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed over %D just above 25
- Bias: Dn-Side
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday April 19 in lower volume. Most major indices are making a three-candle evening star pattern. Also, the %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is crossing below %D.
Up |
Down |
- Energy
- Finance
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Materials
- Industrials
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
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