Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 4:00 AM- At the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle on 30-minute chart
- Down bias on daily and 2-hour charts; bias is sideways to up on lower degree timeframes
- Odds are for a choppy day – watch for break above 2778.25 and below 2666.50 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due
- Existing Home Sales (est. 5.55M) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney and Mumbai are up
- European markets are mostly higher – Italy and Switzerland are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.970%, up from April 20 close of 2.951%;
- 30-years is at 3.153%, up from 3.142%
- 2-years yield is at 2.474%, up from 2.439%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.491, down from 0.512
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2660.61, 2645.05 and 2639.25
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2677.07, 2698.79 and 2702.84
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2681.00, the high at 1:00 AM and break below 2666.50, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2670.75 and the index closed at 2670.14 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2671.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.50; Dow by +48.00; and NASDAQ by +23.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 20 was a doji, almost like a shooting star;
- Last week’s pivot point=2649.12, R1=2687.44, R2=2718.59; S1=2617.97, S2=2579.65; R1 pivot levels was breached;
- An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
- A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large red candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) crossed below %D from over 95;
- At the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
- At 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Declining since 8:00 AM on April 18 from a resistance zone; fallen back into a horizontal channel after a break above it which didn’t last
- Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
- RSI-9 rising since 12:00 PM on April 19 from a low of 18.44 in zigzag manner but still below 50
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Declining from a high of 2718.50 at 7:30 AM on April 18 in a rounding top pattern; below a downtrend line; at the upper limit of symmetrical triangle; trending down with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows
- RSI is rising from 35.72 at 5:30 AM on April 23
- At/below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:30 PM on April 20 after mostly trending down from 12:30 AM on April 18
- The band narrowed during Asian session and is expanding since 2:45 AM
- RSI is moving up from a low of 27.17 at 4:00 AM; is above 65
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above 70
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday April 20 in higher volume. Most major indices made a large red candle with almost no upper shad small lower shadow. For the week, major indices made an almost shooting star like candle, albeit after a very short – two weeks – rally. The volume for the week was mixed and only three sectors Consumer Staples, Technology and Real Estate – declined..
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
|
- Finance
- Telecom
|
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday April 20 in higher volume. Most major indices made a large red candle with almost no upper shad small lower shadow. For the week, major indices made an almost shooting star like candle, albeit after a very short – two weeks – rally. The volume for the week was mixed and only three sectors Consumer Staples, Technology and Real Estate – declined..
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