At the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle on 30-minute chart
Down bias on daily and 2-hour charts; bias is sideways to up on lower degree timeframes
Odds are for a choppy day – watch for break above 2778.25 and below 2666.50 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due
Existing Home Sales (est. 5.55M) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney and Mumbai are up
European markets are mostly higher – Italy and Switzerland are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
USD/INR
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.970%, up from April 20 close of 2.951%;
30-years is at 3.153%, up from 3.142%
2-years yield is at 2.474%, up from 2.439%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.491, down from 0.512
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2660.61, 2645.05 and 2639.25
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2677.07, 2698.79 and 2702.84
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2681.00, the high at 1:00 AM and break below 2666.50, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2670.75 and the index closed at 2670.14 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2671.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.50; Dow by +48.00; and NASDAQ by +23.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Down
15-Min: Down-Side
6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on April 20 was a doji, almost like a shooting star;
Last week’s pivot point=2649.12, R1=2687.44, R2=2718.59; S1=2617.97, S2=2579.65; R1 pivot levels was breached;
An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A large red candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) crossed below %D from over 95;
At the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
At 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Declining since 8:00 AM on April 18 from a resistance zone; fallen back into a horizontal channel after a break above it which didn’t last
Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
RSI-9 rising since 12:00 PM on April 19 from a low of 18.44 in zigzag manner but still below 50
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Declining from a high of 2718.50 at 7:30 AM on April 18 in a rounding top pattern; below a downtrend line; at the upper limit of symmetrical triangle; trending down with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows
RSI is rising from 35.72 at 5:30 AM on April 23
At/below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:30 PM on April 20 after mostly trending down from 12:30 AM on April 18
The band narrowed during Asian session and is expanding since 2:45 AM
RSI is moving up from a low of 27.17 at 4:00 AM; is above 65
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above 70
Bias: Down-Side
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday April 20 in higher volume. Most major indices made a large red candle with almost no upper shad small lower shadow. For the week, major indices made an almost shooting star like candle, albeit after a very short – two weeks – rally. The volume for the week was mixed and only three sectors Consumer Staples, Technology and Real Estate – declined..
