S&P Futures are lower; moved sharply lower beginning 7:00 AM
Just above a critical support level of 2611.00
Odds are for a sideways to down move – watch for break above 2624.50 for change of fortune
Key economic data due
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity (0.7% vs. 0.9% est.) at 8:30 AM
Prelim Unit Labor Cost (2.7% vs. 3.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Claims (211K vs. 225K est.) at 8:30 AM
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (est. 58.1) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly down – Shanghai and Sydney were up; Tokyo was closed
European markets are lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
USD/INR
Commodities:
Up
Down
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Sugar
Bonds
10-yrs yield closed at 2.964% on May 2, up from May 1 close of 2.976%;
30-years is at 3.135%, up from 3.137%
2-years yield is at 2.472%, down from 2.508%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.476, up from 0.468
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2625.41, 2621.37 and 2612.67
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2642.27, 2660.09 and 2665.91
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2624.25, the low at 4:45 PM on May2 and break below 2617.00, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2633.25 and the index closed at 2635.67 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2627.50 for the day; the fair value is +5.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.50; Dow by -103.00; and NASDAQ by -24.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Down
30-Min: Down
15-Min: Down
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on April 27 was a doji with very small upper shadow and very long lower shadow
Last week’s pivot point=2655.38, R1=2698.08, R2=2726.26; S1=2627.20, S2=2584.50; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
A down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in the middle of the pattern
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A Bearish Engulfing candle reaching the lower bound of a symmetrical triangle
Below 20-day EMA, which is below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Bounce from the low of 2611.25 at 8:00 AM on April 25 faltered at 2682.25 on April 30 and price went down to 2624.25 at 4:00 PM; that around 8:00 AM
Price declining around the downtrend line from the April 18 high
RSI-9 is mostly below 50 since 8:00 AM on April 30
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broke below a horizontal channel at 3:00 PM on May 2; reached near the 100% extension target; bouncing after testing the low of 223.25 reached at 1:00 PM on May 1
RSI rose from a low of 27.21 at 4:00 PM on May 2 to 53.12 at 4:30 AM and then made a divergence at 6:00; now back below 30;
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways from 9:30 PM to 7:00 AM following a down move on May 2;
The band was narrow from 9:30 PM to 7:00 AM; expanding to the downside
RSI fallen below 25 from just above 65 at 5:00 AM;
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned down from just above 50 and crossed below %D; near 10
Bias: Down
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices mostly declined on Wednesday May 2 in mostly higher volume. Russell 2000 advanced in lower volume.
Most indices made either a Bearish Engulfing or a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick line.
