Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher;- Odds are for an up day in increased volatility – watch for break above 2675.50 and below 2666.25 for change of fortunes
- No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly up – Tokyo was down and Seoul was closed
- European markets are higher
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.942%, down from May 4 close of 2.944%;
- 30-years is at 3.111%, down from 3.115%
- 2-years yield is at 2.509%, up from 2.505%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.433, down from 0.439
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2659.03, 2637.14 and 2615.32
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2670.93, 2682.92 and 2698.79
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2675.50, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2666.75, the low of 3:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2661.75 and the index closed at 2663.42 – a spread of about -2.75 points; futures closed at 2663.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.25; Dow by +95.00; and NASDAQ by +37.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down-Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on May 4 was a small real body candlestick line with very small upper shadow and very long lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2646.99, R1=2699.35, R2=2735.29; S1=2611.05, S2=2558.69; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
- A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in the middle of the pattern
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large green candle that engulfing past three days real bodies; mall upper shadow and smaller lower shadow; forming a 3-day Morning Star pattern
- Bouncing backing into the symmetrical triangle after breaking below it for a day
- Above 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Broke above the downtrend line from April 18 high; price approaching a resistance level near 2782.00
- RSI-9 is mostly rising from a low of 23.36 at 10:00 AM on May 3; reached above 75 by 12:00 Am on May 7
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- reaching the top of a horizontal trading range that is emerging since 6:00 PM on April 22
- RSI crossed above 40 at 12:00 PM on May 3, puled back to it after rising abit and then broke above 65; above 65
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways from 4:000 PM on May 4;
- The band is narrow since 6:00 PM on May 6
- RSI mostly declining since 2:30 PM on May 4; at 50
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossing above %D from below 20
- Bias: Up-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Friday May 4 in lower volume. Most indies are forming some sort of triangle pattern and most are reaching the middle of the trading range.
For the week, the indices were mixed. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 advanced and rest declined. Most of the indices closed for the week near the high of the range with small upper shadow and very long lower shadow. Energy, Materials, Technology and Real Estate were up and rest of the S&P sectors were down during the week.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
|
Major U.S. indices advanced on Friday May 4 in lower volume. Most indies are forming some sort of triangle pattern and most are reaching the middle of the trading range.
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