Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher but declining from a high of 2741.00 at 00:30 AM to 2732.25 by 8:45 AM- Odds are for a sideways day with an up bias – watch for break above 2737.00 and below 2727.35 for more clues
- No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly up – Seoul was down
- European markets are mostly down – Switzerland is up
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- USD/INR
|
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cocoa
|
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.981%, up from May 11 close of 2.971%;
- 30-years is at 3.112%, down from 3.111%
- 2-years yield is at 2.543%, up from 2.530%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.438, down from 0.441
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2717.45, 2714.41 and 2704.54
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2732.85, 2739.14 and 2750.64
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2737.00, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 2727.25, the low of 6:00 PM on May 13
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2727.25 and the index closed at 2727.72 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2729.50 for the day; the fair value is -2.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.50; Dow by +57.00; and NASDAQ by +15.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend resumed
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on May 11 was a large green candlestick line with very small upper and lower shadows; breaking above a symmetrical triangle
- Last week’s pivot point=2705.32, R1=2755.32, R2=2782.92; S1=2677.66, S2=2627.60; R1 pivot levels was breached;
- An up week; third in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
- A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in breaking above it
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A small green candle with real body just above the real body of Thursday
- Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend resumes
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways since 6:00 PM on May 13; uptrend since 10:00 AM on May 3 in steps; higher highs and higher lows; within a resistance zone around 2720.00 level
- RSI-9 mostly above 65 since 2:00 AM on May 9
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broken above horizontal channel – between 2658.00 and 2681.50 – 261.8% extension target is near 2743.00 was almost achieved
- RSI gradually declining from a high of 72.72 at 0:30 AM on May 14; a bearish divergence
- At/below 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 0:30 AM
- The band is mostly narrow
- RSI declining from a high of 72.79 at 0:30 AM; moving around or below 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossing %D around 20 since 3:00 AM
- Bias: Up-Side
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices advanced on Friday May 11. The volume was lower than on Thursday. NASDAQ Composite was down slightly.
For the week, major indices advanced but the volume was lower except for Dow Jones Transportation Average. Only Consumer Staples and Utilities were down for the week amongst S&P 500 sectors.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples (Unch.)
- Energy
- Industrials
- Utility
- Heath Care
|
- Materials
- Finance
- Technology
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Most major U.S. indices advanced on Friday May 11. The volume was lower than on Thursday. NASDAQ Composite was down slightly.
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