Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 10:30 AM on May 14; new leg down at 6:00 AM- Odds are for a down day with increased volatility – watch for break above 2725.25 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Retail Sales (0.3% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Core Retail Sales (0.3% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Empire State Manufacturing Index ( 20.1 vs. 15.1 est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly down – Shanghai was up
- European markets are mostly up – Spain is down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 3.025%, up from May 14 close of 2.995%;
- 30-years is at 3.150%, up from 3.129%
- 2-years yield is at 2.572%, up from 2.551%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.453, up from 0.444
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2725.47, 2717.45 and 2704.54
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2733.38, 2739.14 and 2750.64
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2725.25, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2716.75, the low of 2:00 PM on May 11
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2729.75 and the index closed at 2730.13 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2731.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -8.75; Dow by -92.00; and NASDAQ by -29.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend resumed
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Side-Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on May 11 was a large green candlestick line with very small upper and lower shadows; breaking above a symmetrical triangle
- Last week’s pivot point=2705.32, R1=2755.32, R2=2782.92; S1=2677.66, S2=2627.60; R1 pivot levels was breached;
- An up week; third in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
- A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in breaking above it
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A small doji candle just above the real body of Friday
- Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend resumes
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways-to-down since 6:00 PM on May 13; uptrend since 10:00 AM on May 3 in steps; higher highs and higher lows; within a resistance zone around 2720.00 level
- RSI-9 mostly above 65 since 2:00 AM on May 9
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving down-sideways since 00:30 AM on May 14 after nearing the 261.8% extension target around 2743.00 of an up break of a symmetrical triangle pattern
- RSI moving around or below 40 since 12:30 PM on May 14
- Below a flat 20-bar EMA, which is below a flat 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 0:30 AM
- The band is mostly narrow
- RSI moving around 40; broke above 50 once and again down to 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossing %D around 20 since 7:00 AM
- Bias: Side-Down
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices were mixed on Monday May 14. The volume was mixed too. Russell 200 and Dow Jones Transportation Average were down and the volume was down for S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Energy
- Materials
- Heath Care
|
- Consumer Staples
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices were mixed on Monday May 14. The volume was mixed too. Russell 200 and Dow Jones Transportation Average were down and the volume was down for S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite.
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