S&P Futures are lower; moving within an up-sloping flag on 30-minute chart, break below 2706.00 would be bearish
Odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways movement with increased volatility – watch for break above 2711.50 and below 2706.00 for clarity
Key economic data due:
Building Permits (1.35M vs. 1.35M est.) at 8:30 AM
Housing Starts ( 1.29M vs. 1.32M est.) at 8:30 AM
Capacity Utilization Rate (est. 78.4%) at 9:15 AM
Industrial Production ( est. 0.6%) at 9:15 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mostly down – Sydney and Seoul were up
European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., France and STOXX-600 are up; Spain, Italy and Switzerland are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CAD
USD/INR
Commodities:
Up
Down
Copper
Coffee
Cotton
Crude Oil
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield closed at 3.080% on May 15, up from May 14 close of 2.995%;
30-years is at 3.209%, up from 3.129%
2-years yield is at 2.589%, up from 2.551%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.491, up from 0.444
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2701.91, 2693.17 and 2683.35
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2714.95, 2718.59 and 2725.47
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2711.50, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2706.25, the low of 5:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2710.75 and the index closed at 2711.45 – a spread of about -0.75 points; futures closed at 2709.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.50; Dow by -18.00; and NASDAQ by -1.75
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend resumed
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Down-Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on May 11 was a large green candlestick line with very small upper and lower shadows; breaking above a symmetrical triangle
Last week’s pivot point=2705.32, R1=2755.32, R2=2782.92; S1=2677.66, S2=2627.60; R1 pivot levels was breached;
An up week; third in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in breaking above it
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A shaved-top red candle with a lower shadow almost equal to the real body; gapped down at the open and the gap was not filled; at the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle that that it broke above on May 10
Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend resumes
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Moving sideways-to-down since 6:00 PM on May 13; below a downtrend line from May 14 high
Uptrend since 10:00 AM on May 3 in steps; higher highs and higher lows; within a resistance zone around 2720.00 level
RSI-9 rising above 40 from a low of 18.91 at 8:00 AM on May 15
Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is below 20-bar EMA
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving down since 00:30 AM on May 14; below a downtrend line
Forming an up-sloping flag since 3:30 PM on May 15; a break below 2706.00 would be bearish
RSI moving up from a low of 20.42 at 9:30 AM on May 15; just above 40
At/below a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is below a declining 50-bar EMA
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 2:30 PM on May 15
The band narrowed from 10:00 PM to 5:00 AM; expanding since a bit
RSI moving between 65 and around 40 since 3:30 PM on May 15
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D below 10 at 5:15 AM; above 90
Bias: Down-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices declined on Tuesday May 15 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in less volume. Indices gapped down at the open and then mostly traded down rest of the day.
