S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 5:00 AM after making a double top
Odds are for a sideways to down day with increased volatility – watch for break above 2733.23 and below 2720.25 for change of fortune
Key economic data due:
Unemployment Claims (234K vs. 220K est.) at 8:30 AM
Existing Home Sales (est. 5.56M) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Tokyo and Seoul were down; Hong Kong, Sydney and Mumbai were up
European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., Italy and Switzerland are down; France, Spain and STOXX 600 are up
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
USD/INR
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Palladium
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.994%, down from May 23 close of 3.003%;
30-years is at 3.153%, down from 3.169%
2-years yield is at 2.556%, down from 2.591%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.461, down from 0.474
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2722.33, 2713.66 and 2709.54
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2733.33, 2737.78 and 2742.24
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2733.25, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 2723.25, the low of 11:30 PM on may 23
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2732.75 and the index closed at 2733.29 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2730.75 for the day; the fair value is +2.00
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -3.50; Dow by -61.00; and NASDAQ by -12.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend resumed
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Up-Side
6-Min: Side-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on May 18 was a small red candlestick line with small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow just above the real body of previous week; breaking above a symmetrical triangle
Last week’s pivot point=2718.99, R1=2736.08, R2=2759.18; S1=2695.89, S2=2678.80; No pivot levels were breached;
A down week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
A symmetrical triangle pattern is in the process of completion; price in breaking above it
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend under pressure
Daily
A piercing candlestick line; very small lower shadow and shaved top; gapped down at the open and then tested the low of Friday, May 18 after filling the Monday’s up gap; the index turned around at 10:30 AM
Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
Uptrend resumes
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Turned up at 6:00 AM on May 23 near the lower limit of a horizontal channel; at the middle of the range
Uptrend since 10:00 AM on May 3 in steps; higher highs and higher lows;
RSI-9 moved below 20 from above 70 at 9:30 AM on May 22
Below 20-bar EMA, which is crossing below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving higher since 5:30 AM on May 23; made a high of 2733.00 at 4:00 PM and then declined to 2720.25 by 9:30 PM then again reached the high of 2733.25 t 4:30 AM; potential double top forming
RSI moved above 65 at 3:30 PM on May 23 from below 20 at 5:30 AM on May 23; above 50
At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving since 8:15 PM on May 23 after moving up from 9:30 AM earlier in the day
The band narrowed from 1:00 AM to 3:00 AM and is expanding since then
RSI mostly between 40 and 65 since 8:00 AM on May 23; fallen below 50 at 7:00 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K declining from above 80 since 4:45 AM; %K crossed above %D below 20 at 7:30 AM
Bias: Up-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday May 23. The volume was higher except for Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite. The indices staged a one day reversal candlestick pattern. At the open the market declined and then turned around mid-day and gained more steam after the FOMC meeting minutes release.
