Morning Notes – Thursday May 31, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are little changed to higher;
  • Mostly moving sideways since 12:00 PM on Wednesday
  • A narrow wedge is emerging on 15-minute charts; break above 2728.25 will have bullish implications and break below 2721.75 bearish
  • Odds are for sideways day with up-bias – watch for break above 2728.25 and break below 2721.75 for more clarity
  • Key economic data due:
    • Core PCE (0.2% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Personal Spending (0.6% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Claims (221K vs. 228K est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Chicago PMI (est. 58.2) at 9:45 AM
    • Pending Home Sales (est. 0.4%) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were up
  • European markets are mostly up – Germany is down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • Copper
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.842% on May 30, down from May 29 close of 2.768%;
    • 30-years is at 3.014%, down from 2.968%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.440%, down from 2.408%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.434, down from 0.441

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2721.10, 2702.43 and 2692.44
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2733.33, 2742.24 and 2750.64
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2728.25, the high of 4:30 AM and break below 2718.00, the low of 6:00 PM on May 30

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2724.25 and the index closed at 2724.01- a spread of about +0.25 points; futures closed at 2724.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is unchanged – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.25; Dow down by -8.00; and NASDAQ up by+3.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on May 18 was a small red spinning top candlestick, which was also a harami candle just above the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle
  • Last week’s pivot point=2723.65, R1=2739.92, R2=2758.51; S1=2705.06, S2=2688.79; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • An up week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A relatively large green candle that gapped up from the previous close but still opened within its real body; small upper shadow and no lower shadow; a three-day morning star pattern
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumes
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Rose back into the horizontal channel that it broke below on May 29; near the middle of the range
  • RSI-9 made double bottom near 18.6 with price lower at second bottom at 12:00 PM on May 29; bounce up above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is crossing above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Made a double top near 2729.25 with an intermediate low of 2718.00; price near the middle of these two levels; a break above will have a target near 2741.00; a break below will have a target near 2707.00
  • RSI-9 above 40 since 3:30 PM on May 29; declined from a high of 77.43 at 2:00 PM on May 30 to a low of 49.28 by 6:00 AM; rising up since then
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:00 PM on May 30
  • The band narrowed since the close of NYSE session on Wednesday;
  • RSI mostly between 40 and 65 since 3:15 PM on May 29 with occasional move above 65; moving along 50 since 6:00 PM
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 6:30 AM from below 30; above 50
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday May 30, regaining more than what was lost on Tuesday. The volume was higher across the board.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Utility
  9. Heath Care
  10. Real Estate
  11. Telecom