Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving within a narrow horizontal channel – high near 2794.00 and low near 2789.00 – since NYSE close on June 12; low volatility; awaiting FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM- Odds are for a sideways move in the early session – watch for break above 2794.25 and below 2789.25 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- PPI (0.5% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Core PPI (0.3% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
- FOMC Statement, Fed Funds Rate, Economic Projections and Press Conference at 2:00 PM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly lower – Tokyo and Mumbai were up; Seoul was closed
- European markets are mostly up – Spain is down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.961%, up from June 12 close of 2.957%;
- 30-years is at 3.088%, down from 3.092%
- 2-years yield is at 2.553%, up from 2.545%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.408, down from 0.412
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2778.78, 2771.78 and 2760.16
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2790.21, 2801.90 and 2808.92
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2794.25, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2789.25, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2790.50 and the index closed at 2786.65 – a spread of about +4.25 points; futures closed at 2788.25 for the day; the fair value is +2.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.50; Dow by +29.00; and NASDAQ by +14.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on June 8 was large green candle that s breaking away from past few weeks congestion zone
- Last week’s pivot point=2766.15, R1=2792.78, R2=2806.54; S1=2752.39, S2=2725.76; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
- An up week; fourth in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A small doji candle with small lower shadow and lower upper shadow
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Break above a horizontal channel continues; the 100% extension target near 2782.00 is achieved; the 161.8% extension target is near 2807.00
- RSI-9 is mostly moving between 50 and 70 since 6:00 AM on June 8
- At/above 20-bar EMA, but above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving within a narrow horizontal channel between 2794.00 and 2783.00 ; near the upper limit
- RSI-9 moving between 40 and 65 or above since 6:30 AM on June 8
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways with a down bias since 11:30 AM on June 11;
- The band contracted during Asian session; expanding slightly since 2:15 AM
- RSI is mostly between 40 and 65 since 6:30 AM on June 8
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed above %D below 20 at 4:00 AM; near 80
- Bias: Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday June 12. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite closed down. The volume was mostly higher except for DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation average.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Materials
- Technology
- Utility
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
- Energy
- Industrials
- Finance
- Heath Care
|
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday June 12. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite closed down. The volume was mostly higher except for DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation average.
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