Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 10:00 AM on June 14- Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2782.25 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Empire State Manufacturing Index (25.0 vs. 19.1 est.) at 8:30 AM
- Capacity Utilization Rate (77.9% vs 78.1% est.) at 9:15 AM
- Industrial Production (-0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 9:15 AM
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (99.3 vs. 98.5 est.) AT 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul were down; Tokyo, Sydney and Mumbai were up
- European markets are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.906%, up from June 14 close of 2.946%;
- 30-years is at 3.028%, down from 3.067%
- 2-years yield is at 2.541%, up from 2.566%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.365, down from 0.380
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2774.65, 2771.78 and 2760.16
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2785.01, 2790.21 and 2801.90
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2782.25, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2772.00, the low of 6:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2788.00 and the index closed at 2782.49 – a spread of about +5.50 points; futures closed at 2788.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -16.50; Dow by -202.00; and NASDAQ by -41.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on June 8 was large green candle that s breaking away from past few weeks congestion zone
- Last week’s pivot point=2766.15, R1=2792.78, R2=2806.54; S1=2752.39, S2=2725.76; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
- An up week; fourth in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A small harami within a large red candle with small upper and lower shadows
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13; made a lower high
- RSI-9 is declining; below 40
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is at EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving down in steps since 11:30 AM on June 13; lower highs and lower lows
- RSI-9 moving down in steps since 9:30 AM on June 14; near 30
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 2:45 AM
- The band expanding since 2:45 AM
- RSI is mostly below 50 since 10:45 AM on June 14
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed below %D above 80 at 7:30 AM
- Bias: Down
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher within in a narrow range on Thursday June 14. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite closed down. The volume was mostly lower except for DJIA.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Materials
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
- Energy
- Industrials
- Finance
|
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher within in a narrow range on Thursday June 14. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite closed down. The volume was mostly lower except for DJIA.
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