Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moved sharply lower at 7:00 PM on Monday
- Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2757.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Housing Starts (1.35M vs. 1.31M est.) at 8:30 AM
- Building Permits (1.30M vs. 1.35M est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed down
- European markets are down
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
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- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
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- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
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- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
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- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.874%, down from June 18 close of 2.926%;
- 30-years is at 3.009%, down from 3.055%
- 2-years yield is at 2.520%, down from 2.549%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.354, down from 0.355
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2757.12, 2748.46 and 2739.69
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2774.99, 2779.91 and 2785.01
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2757.50, the high of 1:00 AM and break below 2743.25, the low of 7:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2777.75 and the index closed at 2773.75 – a spread of about +4.00 points; futures closed at 2779.75 for the day; the fair value is +2.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -26.00; Dow by -299.00; and NASDAQ by -86.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Side-Down
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
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Weekly: |
- The week ending on June 15 was doji with almost similar sized upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2777.62, R1=2793.51, R2=2807.36; S1=2763.77, S2=2747.88; No pivot levels were breached;
- An up week; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
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Daily
|
- A green candle with small lower and smaller upper shadow; gap down at the open; the decline turned around in the first half hour of trading but the close was below previous day’s close
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; making lower highs and lower lows; broke below a down-loping flag; bouncing off a support zone near 2740.00
- RSI-9 in downtrend since 2:00 AM on June 7; below 40; bouncing off the low of 20.91
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is at EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side-Down
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Trending down in a down-sloping flag since 11:30 AM on June 13; Moving down in steps since 11:30 AM on June 13; lower highs and lower lows; broke below the down-sloping flag at 7:30 PM on June 18
- RSI-9 is trending down and moving down in steps since 9:30 AM on June 14; bouncing-off the low of 19.44 at 3:00 AM; just above 40
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is trending down since 11:30 AM on June 13
- The band is broader since 7:00 PM on Monday; first the p[rice moved along the lower band till 3:00 AM; now it is at the upper band, which is still trending down
- RSI is mostly below 50 since 10:45 AM on June 14; it made a low of 15.78; now just above 50
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed above %D at 7:30 AM; %K crossing below %D above 80
- Bias: Down
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Monday June 18. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 gained. Volume was lower across the board.
Up |
Down |
- Energy
- Technology
- Utility
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- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
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