Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are little changed; moved lower over the Asian and European session; jumped 20 points at 7:30 AM- Odds are for a sideways to up day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2733.75 and break below 2723.50 for more clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Durable Goods Orders (-0.6% vs. -0.9% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Core Durable Goods (-0.3% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Pending Home Sales (est. 0.4%) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed down
- European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K. France and STOXX 600 are up, Spain, Italy and Switzerland are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Sugar
- Coffee
|
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.851%, down from June 26 close of 2.880%;
- 30-years is at 2.998%, down from 3.028%
- 2-years yield is at 2.541%, down from 2.549%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.339, up from 0.348
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2721.31, 2698.67 and 2676.81
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2722.91, 2742.94 and 2764.04
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2733.75, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2712.00, the low of 7:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2724.75 and the index closed at 2723.06 – a spread of about +1.75 points; futures closed at 2728.50 for the day; the fair value is -3.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is little changed to up – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.75; Dow up by +15.00; and NASDAQ by +0.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend under pressure
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Side-Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on June 22 was a red spinning top candle with almost equal sized upper and lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2757.69, R1=2772.18, R2=2789.49; S1=2740.38, S2=2725.89; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; first in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A small harami doji near the middle of previous day
- %K crossing over below %D
- Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Retracing from a resistance level near 2735.00; almost reached the low of June 26; bounce up to 2719.00
- Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows resumed; below a downtrend line
- RSI-9 trending down since the high of 70.04 at 8:00 PM on June 20; broke above downtrend line; now back at it after reaching 56.9
- %K in a downtrend; moving down crisscrossing %D
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Forming a symmetrical triangle below a resistance level near 2735.00
- Moving sideways since 4:00 PM on June 25 with a down bias
- RSI-9 fell below 40 at 2:30 AM; bouncing off 20
- At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 2:00 after moving sideways during the day on June26;
- The band expanding since 2:00 AM with price hugging the lower band
- RSI mostly below 50 since 3:30 PM on June 26;
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 4:45 AM from below 30; crossing below it at above 90
- Bias: Side-Down
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday June 26. The volume was lower. They gave up their day’ gains near the close of the trading. Most indices also made harami-doji like patterns.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Technology
- Utility
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
- Consumer Staples
- Finance
- Heath Care
|
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday June 26. The volume was lower. They gave up their day’ gains near the close of the trading. Most indices also made harami-doji like patterns.
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