Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher but off the high of 2737.25 at 4:30 AM; trending up since 8:30 AM on June 28
- Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 2723.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Core PCE (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Spending (0.0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Chicago PMI ( est. 60.1) at 10:00 AM
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 99.1) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly up – Sydney was down
- European markets are higher
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.850%, up from June 28 close of 2.847%;
- 30-years is at 2.975%, up from 2.966%
- 2-years yield is at 2.541%, down from 2.549%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.330, down from 0.331
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2709.47, 2691.99 and 2676.81
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2728.1, 2746.09 and 2764.04
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2734.00, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2723.00, the low of 6:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2718.25 and the index closed at 2716.31 – a spread of about +2.00 points; futures closed at 2719.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25; Dow by +68.00; and NASDAQ by +14.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend under pressure
- 120-Min: Down-Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on June 22 was a red spinning top candle with almost equal sized upper and lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2757.69, R1=2772.18, R2=2789.49; S1=2740.38, S2=2725.89; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; first in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A piercing green candle ; the high for the day reached 50-D EMA
- %K crossed above %D from below 20
- Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Bouncing from the low near 2693.25 at 8:00 AM on June 28 to a downtrend line form June 20 high
- Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows; a break above 2748.00 will break this sequence
- RSI-9 trending up since the low of low of 15.68 at 10:00 AM on June 25; a decline from near 65 on June 27 stopped just below 40; coming down below 65
- %K crossed above %D at 4:00 PM on June 27 from below 10
- Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above 20-Bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Near the upper limit of a horizontal trading range of nearly 35 points; a break above 2737.25 will create a target near 2770.00; moving up since 8:30 AM on June 28
- RSI-9 mostly between 40 and 65 with couple of breaches above and below; made a bullish divergence at 8:30 Am on June 28; rising since above 50
- At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is trending up since 12:30 PM on June 28
- The band narrowed briefly at 3:00 AM; again expanding with price first moving along upper band and then lower band
- RSI is staying 40 since 9:15 AM on June 28; mostly above 50 since 10:30 AM
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossed %D below 20 in early European session; rising above 80
- Bias: Side-Up
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday June 28. The indices made either piercing, hammer or dragonfly doji like candle patterns. The volume was lower.
Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples (Unch.)
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
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- Energy
- Utility
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