S&P Futures are higher but off the high of 2737.25 at 4:30 AM; trending up since 8:30 AM on June 28
Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 2723.00 for change of fortune
Key economic data due:
Core PCE (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Personal Spending (0.0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
Chicago PMI ( est. 60.1) at 10:00 AM
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 99.1) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly up – Sydney was down
European markets are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
USD/INR
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cotton
Crude Oil
Sugar
Cocoa
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.850%, up from June 28 close of 2.847%;
30-years is at 2.975%, up from 2.966%
2-years yield is at 2.541%, down from 2.549%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.330, down from 0.331
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2709.47, 2691.99 and 2676.81
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2728.1, 2746.09 and 2764.04
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2734.00, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2723.00, the low of 6:30 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2718.25 and the index closed at 2716.31 – a spread of about +2.00 points; futures closed at 2719.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25; Dow by +68.00; and NASDAQ by +14.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend under pressure
120-Min: Down-Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on June 22 was a red spinning top candle with almost equal sized upper and lower shadow
Last week’s pivot point=2757.69, R1=2772.18, R2=2789.49; S1=2740.38, S2=2725.89; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
A down week; first in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend resumed
Daily
A piercing green candle ; the high for the day reached 50-D EMA
%K crossed above %D from below 20
Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Bouncing from the low near 2693.25 at 8:00 AM on June 28 to a downtrend line form June 20 high
Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows; a break above 2748.00 will break this sequence
RSI-9 trending up since the low of low of 15.68 at 10:00 AM on June 25; a decline from near 65 on June 27 stopped just below 40; coming down below 65
%K crossed above %D at 4:00 PM on June 27 from below 10
Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above 20-Bar EMA
Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Near the upper limit of a horizontal trading range of nearly 35 points; a break above 2737.25 will create a target near 2770.00; moving up since 8:30 AM on June 28
RSI-9 mostly between 40 and 65 with couple of breaches above and below; made a bullish divergence at 8:30 Am on June 28; rising since above 50
At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is trending up since 12:30 PM on June 28
The band narrowed briefly at 3:00 AM; again expanding with price first moving along upper band and then lower band
RSI is staying 40 since 9:15 AM on June 28; mostly above 50 since 10:30 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossed %D below 20 in early European session; rising above 80
Bias: Side-Up
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday June 28. The indices made either piercing, hammer or dragonfly doji like candle patterns. The volume was lower.
