Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; trending up since 3:30 AM on July 2;
- Risk-on day
- Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2726.50 for change of fortune
- No key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly up – Hong Kong and Tokyo were down
- European markets are lower
- Currencies:
Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.880%, down from July 2 close of 2.869%;
- 30-years is at 2.999%, up from 2.993%
- 2-years yield is at 2.520%, up from 2.516%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.313, up from 0.309
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2713.22, 2702.71 and 2698.91
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2738.43, 2743.26 and 2764.04
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2745.50, the high of 11:00 AM on June 29 and break below 2726.50, the low of 3:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2727.25 and the index closed at 2726.71 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 2727.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.00; Dow by +137.00; and NASDAQ by +41.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend under pressure
- 120-Min: Down-Side
- 30-Min: Side-Up
- 15-Min: Side-Up
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
Weekly: |
- The week ending on June 29 was a red candle with almost no upper shadow and longer lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2718.82, R1=2745.65, R2=2772.92; S1=2691.54, S2=2664.72; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; first in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- An almost bullish engulfing candle; opened with a gap down that was also the low for the day;
- %K continues to stay above %D after crossing from below 20
- At 50-day EMA but below 20-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Price turned around from a low of 2698.50, near the lower limit of a trading range, at 2:00 AM July 2;
- Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows; a break above 2748.00 will break this sequence
- RSI-9 rising since 2:00 AM on July 2 from a low of 29.08
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down-Side
|
30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Nearing the upper limit of a horizontal trading range in effect since 9:30 AM on June 25
- RSI-9 rising since 3:00 AM on July 2 and is above 70
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side-Up
|
15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is trending up since 1:30 PM on July 2
- The band narrowed during Asian session and then expanded slightly at 1:30 AM
- RSI is above 40 since 9:30 AM on July 2 and above 50 since 1:30 PM; is above 65
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossed %D around 70 since 4:00 AM; dipping below 70
- Bias: Side-Up
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday July 2, however, the volume was lower except for Russell 2000. NYSE Composite closed down. Most major indices made a bullish engulfing candle.
Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Telecom
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- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Real Estate
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