Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are down- Below a downtrend line since 9:30 PM on July 15 on 30-minute chart; daily charts is indicating hesitation or pause
- Odds are for a down to sideways day – watch for break above 2797.75 and below 2790.50 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Capacity Utilization (est. 78.4% ) at 9:15 AM
- Industrial Production (est. 0.5%) at 9:15 AM
- Fed Chair Powell – Semi Annual Policy Report at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Tokyo and Mumbai were up
- European markets are lower
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.851%, down from July 16 close of 2.858%;
- 30-years is at 2.953%, down from 2.962%
- 2-years yield is at 2.603%, up from 2.586%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.245, down from 0.259
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2793.39, 2791.69 and 2781.53
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2801.19, 2804.53 and 2808.92
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2797.50, the high of 4:00 AM and break below 2790.50, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2800.50 and the index closed at 2798.43 – a spread of about +2.00 points; futures closed at 2796.50 for the day; the fair value is +4.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.50; Dow by -17.00; and NASDAQ by -1.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend resumed
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Side-Down
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Down-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on July 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper shadow and shaved bottom; the candle gapped up the open, which was not filled;
- Last week’s pivot point=2791.45, R1=2814.39, R2=2827.47; S1=2778.7, S2=2755.43; R1 pivot level was breached;
- A second up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A small, almost doji, red candle with small lower and upper shadow
- %K crossing below %D from above 90;
- Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Drifting down since the high of 2809.00 at 6:00 PM on July 13; moving up since 8:00 AM on June 28; higher highs and higher lows; a retracement from the high of 2797.75 on July 10 stopped at 2765.75 at 8:00 PM on July 10
- RSI-9 declining from 65 at 12:00 AM on July 13; near 40 since 10:00 AM on July 16; below 40
- Below 20-bar EMA; at/above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving down, below a downtrend line since 9:30 PM on July 15; within a horizontal channel with high of 2809.00 and low of 2793.25 since 12:30 PM on July 12; near the lower limit of the channel and in danger of breaking below it
- Broken above a horizontal channel – between 2747.50 and 2698.50 – the 100% extension target near 2796.50 is achieved and the 161.8% extension target is near 2826.75
- RSI-9 mostly around 40 since 6:00 AM on July 16
- Below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Side-Down
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down 9:30 PM on July 15
- The band narrowed, relatively, during early Asian session; expanding since 1:45 AM
- RSI is mostly below since 5:00 AM; rising above 40 and nearing 50
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D from 0 at 6:30 AM
- Bias: Down
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday July 16. Dow Jones Industrial Average was up. The volume was mixed. DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume and others in lower volume.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Finance
|
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Industrials
- Materials
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday July 16. Dow Jones Industrial Average was up. The volume was mixed. DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume and others in lower volume.
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