Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are down; drifting down since 8:00 PM on July 17- Odds are for a sideways to up day – watch for break above 2813.75 and below 2807.75 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Building Permits (1.27M vs. 1.33M est.) at 8:30 AM
- Housing Starts (1.17M vs. 1.32M est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hing Kong, Mumbai and Seoul closed down; Tokyo and Sydney were up
- European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., France, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up; Spain and Italy are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.848%, down from July 17 close of 2.864%;
- 30-years is at 2.959%, down from 2.971%
- 2-years yield is at 2.607%, down from 2.615%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.241, down from 0.249
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2808.24, 2789.24 and 2781.53
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2814.06, 2822.42 and 2835.96
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2813.75, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 2807.75, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2812.00 and the index closed at 2809.55 – a spread of about +2.50 points; futures closed at 2811.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.75; Dow by -12.00; and NASDAQ by -14.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend resumed
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Side-Down
- 6-Min: Side-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on July 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper shadow and shaved bottom; the candle gapped up the open, which was not filled;
- Last week’s pivot point=2791.45, R1=2814.39, R2=2827.47; S1=2778.7, S2=2755.43; R1 pivot level was breached;
- A second up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A large bullish engulfing candle breaking above a resistance level created by the gap-down open on February 2, 2018
- %K trying to cross above %D above 90;
- Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Bounced up from the EMA50 at 10:00 AM on July 17; broke above a resistance level; moving sideways since 12:00 PM on July 17
- RSI-9 declining from 75 at 6:00 PM on July 17; just below 65
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways since 12:30 PM on July 17; broke above down-sloping flag at 10:00 AM on July 17; 61.8% Fibonacci Extension near 2816.50 is achieved; the 100% Fibonacci Extension target is near 2833.00
- Broken above a horizontal channel – between 2747.50 and 2698.50 – the 100% extension target near 2796.50 is achieved and the 161.8% extension target is near 2826.75
- RSI-9 is drifting down from a high of 76.4 at 12:00 PM on July 17; near 50
- At 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to down 6:30 PM on July 17
- The band narrowed, relatively, during early Asian session; expanding since 5:45 AM with price moving along the lower band
- RSI is trending down since 12:15 PM on July 17 from a high of 82.26; below 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D from 0 at 7:30 AM; making a bullish divergence
- Bias: Side-Down
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday July 17. Most indices made bullish engulfing candlestick line. The volume was mixed. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume and others in higher volume.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Industrials
- Materials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Telecom
|
- Energy
- Utility
- Real Estate
|
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday July 17. Most indices made bullish engulfing candlestick line. The volume was mixed. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume and others in higher volume.
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