S&P Futures are down; drifting down since 10:30 PM on July 18
Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2812.75 for change of fortune
Key economic data due:
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (25.7 vs. 21.6 est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Claims (207K vs. 220K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly down – Sydney was up
European markets are mostly down – U.K. and Switzerland are up;
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
USD/INR
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Cocoa
Crude Oil
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.885%, up from July 18 close of 2.875%;
30-years is at 3.001%, up from 2.989%
2-years yield is at 2.628%, up from 2.607%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.257, down from 0.268
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2811.54, 2808.24 and 2789.24
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2816.74, 2822.42 and 2835.96
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2810.00, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2806.25, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2816.75 and the index closed at 2815.62 – a spread of about +1.25 points; futures closed at 2816.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -9.50; Dow by -103.00; and NASDAQ by -30.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend resumed
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Side-Down
15-Min: Side-Down
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on July 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper shadow and shaved bottom; the candle gapped up the open, which was not filled;
Last week’s pivot point=2791.45, R1=2814.39, R2=2827.47; S1=2778.7, S2=2755.43; R1 pivot level was breached;
A second up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend resumed
Daily
A small green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow
%K is above %D above 90;
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Drifting down since the high of 2818.25 at 2:00 PM;
Bounced up from the EMA50 at 10:00 AM on July 17; broke above a resistance level; moving sideways since 12:00 PM on July 17
RSI-9 declining from 75 at 6:00 PM on July 17; just below 40
Below 20-bar EMA; above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving sideways-to-down since 12:30 PM on July 17; broke above down-sloping flag at 10:00 AM on July 17; 61.8% Fibonacci Extension near 2816.50 is achieved; the 100% Fibonacci Extension target is near 2833.00
A double top pattern – high of 2818.25 and low 2815.75; all Fibonacci extension targets have been achieved
Broken above a horizontal channel – between 2747.50 and 2698.50 – the 100% extension target near 2796.50 is achieved and the 161.8% extension target is near 2826.75
RSI-9 is drifting down from a high of 76.4 at 12:00 PM on July 17; near 30
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to down 6:30 PM on July 17
The band narrowed, relatively, from 4:00 PM to 11:15 PM on July 18; expanding since with price moving along the lower band
RSI is trending down since 12:15 PM on July 17 from a high of 82.26; below 40
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossing %D near 20
Bias: Side-Down
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday July 18. NASDAQ Composite was down. Day’s price-range was small except for Dow Jones Transportation Average. The volume was mixed. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume and others in lower volume.
