Morning Notes – Friday July 20, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down; moved up from a low of 2793.00 at 6:00 AM;  resuming the downtrend at 8:00 AM
  • Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2802.75 for change of fortune
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly up – Tokyo was down
  • European markets are mostly down – Switzerland is up;
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • NatGas
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.849%, up from July 19 close of 2.847%;
    • 30-years is at 2.969%, up from 2.967%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.600%, up from 2.587%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.249, down from 0.260

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2799.77, 2789.24 and 2871.53
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 28112.05, 2816.74 and 2822.42
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2802.75, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2793.00, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2806.00 and the index closed at 2804.49 – a spread of about +1.50 points; futures closed at 2805.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside  – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.50; Dow by -96.00; and NASDAQ up by+9.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper shadow and shaved bottom; the candle gapped up the open, which was not filled;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2791.45, R1=2814.39, R2=2827.47; S1=2778.7, S2=2755.43; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A second up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A small red candle with small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow
  • %K crossed below %D above 90;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting down since the high of 2818.25 at 2:00 PM; near the support level around 2789.75, which was previous swing low
  • RSI-9 declining from 75 at 6:00 PM on July 17; bouncing off he low of 27.41 at 8:00 PM on July 19; just above 40
  • Below 20-bar EMA; below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving down in steps since 12:30 PM on July 17; made a double bottom at 2793.50; a break above 2806.00 will complete the pattern
  • RSI-9 is mostly below 50 since 12:00 AM on July 19; rising from a low 34.1 after making a bullish divergence
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 6:30 PM on July 17; moving sideways since 2:00 AM
  • The band expanded at 9:00 PM on July 19 with price moving along the lower band; the narrowed, relatively, from 2:30 AM to 6:00 AM with price moving along the upper band; expanding since 6:00 AM with moving up to the md-level
  • RSI made a bullish divergence at 6:15 AM after making a low of 29.91 and is moving up; near 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 6:30 AM
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday July 19. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher. The volume was higher for most. DJT traded in lower.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Utility
  5. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Industrials
  3. Finance
  4. Technology
  5. Heath Care
  6. Telecom