S&P Futures are lower; moving sideways since 6:00 PM on Wednesday in a narrow range
Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2841.25 and below 2833.50 for clarity
Key economic data due:
Durable Goods (1.0% vs. 3.0% est.) at 8:30 AM
Core Durable Goods (0.4% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Claims (217K vs. 215K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai and Seoul were up
European markets are mostly higher – U.K. is lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/INR
Dollar index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Coffee
Cocoa
Crude Oil
Gold
Silver
Sugar
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.967%, up from July 25 close of 2.936%;
30-years is at 3.095%, up from 3.064%
2-years yield is at 2.673%, unchanged
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.294, up from 0.263
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2830.36, 2818.58 and 2811.12
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2851.48, 2867.45 and 2872.09
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2838.75, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2833.50, the low of 1:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2847.25 and the index closed at 2846.07 – a spread of about +1.25 points; futures closed at 2841.25 for the day; the fair value is -6.00
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.50; Dow up by +57.00; and NASDAQ down by -55.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend resumed
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on July 20 was a small doji candle
Last week’s pivot point=2802.61, R1=2815.98, R2=2830.13; S1=2788.46, S2=2775.09; R1 pivot level was breached;
A third up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend resumed
Daily
A bullish engulfing candle with shaved bottom and almost no upper shadow
%K is above %D just below 90;
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Declining from a high of 2849.50 at 4:00 PM on July 25; near 2836.00 after almost 33% retracement of the last rally from July 25 low of 2814.00
RSI-9 declining from the high of 84.26 at 4:00 PM on July 25
Above 20-bar EMA; which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving sideways since 6:00 PM on July 25 within 2839,.50 and 2834.25, the high and low of the 6:00 PM candle
RSI-9 is moving around 50 since 9:00 PM
At 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 10:45 PM on July 25
The band contracted since 10:45 PM
RSI moving around 50 since 6:00 PM on July 25
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossing below %D just under 80
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday July 25. Most are also trying to break above a multi-month resistance level, though only NASDAQ Composite made all-time high. Most also made either one-day reversal or breakout candlestick line. Russell 2000 was the lone exception. The volume was mostly lower. Only S&P 500 traded in higher volume.
