Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways to up since 6:00 PM on Wednesday in a narrow range- Odds are for a sideways to up day – watch for break above 2845.50 and below 2839.00 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Advanced GDP (4.1% vs. 4.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Advanced GDP Price Index (3.0% vs. 2.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 97.1) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai was down
- European markets are higher
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.965%, down from July 26 close of 2.975%;
- 30-years is at 3.089%, down from 3.100%
- 2-years yield is at 2.686%, up from 2.682%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.283, down from 0.293
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2835.85, 2830.36 and 2818.58
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2845.57, 2851.48 and 2867.45
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2845.50, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2839.00, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2838.25 and the index closed at 2837.44 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2842.50 for the day; the fair value is -6.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00; Dow by +5.00; and NASDAQ by +24.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on July 20 was a small doji candle
- Last week’s pivot point=2802.61, R1=2815.98, R2=2830.13; S1=2788.46, S2=2775.09; R1 pivot level was breached;
- A third up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A doji harami candle with shaved bottom and small upper shadow
- %K is above %D just below 90; potential to make a bearish divergence
- Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways high of 2849.50 at 4:00 PM on July 25; after almost 33% retracement of the last rally from July 25 low of 2814.00
- RSI-9 moving along 65 since 6:00 PM on July 25; below 65
- Above 20-bar EMA; which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways, with an up bias, since 6:00 PM on July 25
- RSI-9 is mostly between 65 and 40 since 6:00 PM on July 25; just below 50
- At/below 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways, with an up bias since 10:45 PM on July 25
- The band contracted since 9:45 PM on Thursday
- RSI moving between 65 and 40 since 6:00 PM on July 25; near or below 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossing above %D just under 20
- Bias: Up-Side
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday July 26. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite decline little bit. They also, along with Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made near harami doji with large upper shadow and almost no lower shadow. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite followed through on the large move on Wednesday. Russell 2000 made a near morning star pattern.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Utility
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
|
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday July 26. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite decline little bit. They also, along with Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made near harami doji with large upper shadow and almost no lower shadow. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite followed through on the large move on Wednesday. Russell 2000 made a near morning star pattern.
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