S&P Futures are higher; moving up from a low of 2798.25 since 12:30 PM on July 30; near a resistance level
Odds are for a sideways to up day, with high volatility – watch for break above 2811.75 and below 2804.75 for clarity
Key economic data due:
Core PCE Price Index (0.1% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
Employment Cost Index (0.6% vs. 0.7% est.) at 8:30 Am
Personal Spending (0.4% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong was down
European markets are mostly higher – Germany is lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
USD/CAD
Dollar index
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
USD/INR
Commodities:
Up
Down
Gold
Platinum
Palladium
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
NatGas
Silver
Copper
Sugar
Coffee
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.958%, down from July 30 close of 2.975%;
30-years is at 3.081%, down from 3.106%
2-years yield is at 2.690%, up from 2.666%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.268, down from 0.309
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2798.11, 2795.14 and 2789.24
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2810.55, 2821.74 and 2825.33
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2811.50, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2804.75, the low of 4:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2804.00 and the index closed at 2802.60 – a spread of about +1.5 points; futures closed at 2803.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.25; Dow by +25.00; and NASDAQ by +26.00
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Side
30-Min: Down-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on July 20 was a green candle that broke above a doji candle of previous week; the real body smaller than the upper shadow
Last week’s pivot point=2820.66, R1=2846.19, R2=2873.55; S1=2793.30, S2=2767.77; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached;
A fourth up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
Uptrend resumed
Daily
A relatively large red candle following a bearish engulfing candle, which had engulfed a harami-doji; small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow
Above previous swing low
%K is below %D after making a bearish divergence
At/above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Downtrend since July 25 2:00 PM high of 2849.50; broke below an upsloping flag at 8:00 AM on July 27; broke above a downtrend line
RSI-9 moving up from a low of 15.16 at 12:00 AM on July 30; made a bullish divergence at 2:00 PM on July 30
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broke below a support zone or lower limit of a horizontal channel near 2833.00 at 10:00 AM on Julye 27; achieved 200% extension target near 2800.00
RSI-9 rising form a low of 13.37 at 12:30 PM on July 27; made a bullish engulfing at 12:30 PM on July 30; above 40 since 4:30 PM on July 30
Above 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways with an up bias 6:00 PM on July 30
The band was narrow from 10:00 PM to 6:00 AM; expanding since then with price moving along the upper band
RSI between 40 and 65 since 4:30 PM on July 30; near 65 since 6:45 AM
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D above 80 at 6:45 AM and made a bearish divergence at 7:45 AM
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday July 30. The volume was lower for most except for NASDAQ Composite. NASAQ and Russell 2000 are leading the market down. Dow Jones Transportation Average is performing better than other followed by NYSE Composite.
