Morning Notes – Wednesday April 10, 2019

Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 9:30 PM on Tuesday; back within a trading range between 2899.50 and 2884.25 for past two days;
• The odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2891.25 and break below 2883.75 for clarity
• Key economic data due:
  • CPI ( 0.4% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.1%) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul and Singapore closed up; Hong Kong. Tokyo and Mumbai closed down
• European markets are mostly higher – U.K. and Switzerland are down
• Currencies:
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/INR	EUR/USD

• Commodities:
  

  Up	Down
  Crude Oil NatGas	Gold Silver Copper Platinum Palladium Sugar Coffee Cotton Cocoa

• Bonds
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.494%, down from April 8 close of 2.519%;
  • 30-years is at 2.909%, down from 2.925%
  • 2-years yield is at 2.355%, down from 2.364%
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.139, down from 0.155

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2873.33, 2867.14 and 2858.75
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2886.88, 2891.15 and 2895.95
• Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2891.25, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2883.75, the low of 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2883.75 and the index closed at 2878.20 – a spread of about +5.50 points; futures closed at 2882.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25; Dow by +43 and NASDAQ by +14.00

Directional Bias Before Open

• Weekly: Uptrend
• Daily: Uptrend
• 120-Min: Side
• 30-Min: Side
• 15-Min: Side-Up
• 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Tuesday, April 9 in higher volume. The day’s tone was decisive down. Dow Jones Industrial Average is leading the market down. It is at the upper bound of the gap-up of April 1. On 2-hour chart both the futures and cash index of DJIA are forming a head-&-shoulder pattern. A break below 26071.69 would be bearish for DJIA, which could weigh negatively on S&P 500 too.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 lost 0.6% on Tuesday, as negative macroeconomic headlines and a bit of corporate news fostered some broad-based profit taking. Tuesday’s decline snapped an eight-session winning streak for the benchmark index.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 lost 1.2%.

[…]

The S&P 500 industrials (-1.4%) and financial (-0.9%) sectors were added weights for the market following some corporate developments.

[…]

U.S. Treasuries saw increased buying interest following the IMF growth cut for 2019. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield decreased two basis points each to 2.34% and 2.50%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 97.01. WTI crude lost 0.5% to $64.06/bbl.

[…]

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March ticked higher to 101.8 from the prior month’s reading of 101.7.
• The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings decreased to 7.087 million from a revised 7.625 million (from 7.581 million) in January.

• S&P 500 Sectors