Morning Notes – Tuesday November 12, 2019

/ November 12, 2019

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are essentially moving sideways for the past couple of days
  • The odds are for a sideways day; watch for break above 3097.00 and below 3072.50 for clarity
  • No key economic data due:

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Confirmed Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3075.82, 3065.89 and 3050.72
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3088.33, 3097.70 and 3104.13
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3094.00, the high of 1:00 AM and break below 3081.25, the low of 10:00 PM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3085.75 and the index closed at 3087.01 – a spread of about -1.25 points; futures closed at 3087.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are little changed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.25; Dow up by +11 and NASDAQ up by +4.75

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney was down; Mumbai was closed
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • INR/USD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Palladium
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 1.943%, up from November 7 close of 1.926%;
    • 30-years is at 2.427%, up from 2.403%
    • 2-years yield is at 1.670%, down from 1.673%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.273 down from 0.253
  • VIX
    • Is at 12.69 unchanged from November 11 close above 5-day SMA
    • Recent high was 13.95 on October 31; recent low was 12.07 on November 8

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly
  • Uptrend resumed
  • September was a green candle with small upper shadow and lower shadow longer than the real body
    • Stochastic %K is above %D and above 90
    • RSI-9 is breaking above a downtrend line from January 2018 high;
    • Rising to the upper band from near the middle band of the 120-month regression channel
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since February 2016 is broken in December since then a new high has been made in May 2019
Weekly:
  • The week ending on November 8 was a green candle with almost small upper shadow and longer lower shadow
    • Breaking above the upper bound of a broadening pattern
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; above 90;
    • RSI (9) is above 70
  • Last week was up +26.17 or +0.9%; the 5-week ATR is 52.69
  • Last week’s pivot point=3085.58, R1=3105.27, R2=3117.46; S1=3073.39, S2=3053.70; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached
  • An up week; Fifth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Last swing low, 2728.81, was the low on June 3, 2018; last swing high was 3027.98, made during the week of July 22
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A small green candle near the lower body of Friday
    • %K is crisscrossing %D above 80
    • RSI-9 is below 8-day SMA
  • Broke above a symmetrical triangle, that resembles an ascending triangle, on October 25;
    • Upper bound 3027.98 and lower bound 2898.07; max height almost 130; break point is 3016.00; the 61.8% extension target near 3096.00 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 3146.00;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA;
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting mostly sideways to up since 8:00 AM on November 4 within a 30 point band; uptrend since October 9
    • RSI-21 is moving around 55
    • %K is below %D
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways since 2:30 AM on November 7 between 3097.00 and 3072.50
    • RSI-21 moving near 55
    • %K is crisscrossing %D higher since 4:30 AM
    • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting sideways since 00:30 AM on November 8
  • The Bollinger Band expanded from 00:15 AM to 6:30 AM; relatively narrow since then
  • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D around 30
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Monday, November 11 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher. Most indices made a green candle, which means the close was higher than the open. Indices opened up lower and then for most of the day moved sideways to up.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 declined just 0.2% on Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.04%) eked out a record close amid strength in Boeing (BA 366.96, +15.96, +4.6%) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 62.25, +3.01, +5.1%). The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.1%, and the Russell 2000 lost 0.3%.

[…]

Eight of the other 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in negative territory, with utilities (-0.7%), energy (-0.6%), and health care (-0.4%) underperforming the broader market.

Despite those losses, today proved to be another resilient session considering the S&P 500 declined as much as 0.6% shortly after the open in a profit-taking trade. Some trade uncertainty and another bout of violence in the democratic protests in Hong Kong may have restrained risk sentiment.

[…]

The U.S. Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day and investors did not receive any economic data. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 98.22. WTI crude declined 0.6% to $56.88/bbl.

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