S&P Futures are lower; fresh leg down since 3:00 AM;
The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2778.75 for change of fortune
Key economic data due:
Existing Home Sales ( 5.27M est.; prev. 5.77M) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: In Correction
Daily: In Correction
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Down
15-Min: Down
6-Min: Side-Down
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2761.54, 2731.94 and 2721.17
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2775.13, 2805.87 and 2822.06
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2862.75, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2746.00, the low of 8:00 PM on April 15
Pre-Open
On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2813.25 and the index closed at 2823.16 – a spread of about -10.00 points; futures closed at 2806.50 for the day; the fair value is +7.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -51.75; Dow by -550 and NASDAQ by -79.25
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed down
European markets are lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
INR/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil (unch.)
NatGas
Gold
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Bond
10-yrs yield is at 0.550%, down from April 20 close of 0.626%;
30-years is at 1.134%, down from 1.237%
2-years yield is at 0.193% down from 0.195%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.357 down from 0.431
VIX
Is at 47.09 up +3.26 from April 20 close; above 5-day SMA;
Down from all time high of 85.47 on March 18
Risk-off
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly
Uptrend under pressure
March 2020 was a large red top candle with large upper and lower shadows; index declined 12.5%;
Stochastic %K is below %D and near 30; %K Bearish Divergence
RSI-9 declined from above 75 to near 30; Bearish Divergence
Broke below the lower band of the 120-month regression channel to middle of the band; only third time since 2009 but first close below the lower bound
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows broken
Weekly:
The week ending on April 17 was a green candle with almost no upper shadow and lower shadow that was two-third of the real body;
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D above 50
RSI (9) is moving higher; near 50
Last week was up +84.74 or +3.0%; the 5-week ATR is 311.50
Last week’s pivot point=2824.98, R1=2928.80, R2=2983.03; S1=2770.75, S2=2666.93; No pivot levels were breached
An up week; third in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
All time high of 3393.52, the last swing high, was during the week of February 17; broke below the low of the week of December 24, 2018; support near 2193.81, the high during the week of August 15, 2016; sequence of higher highs and higher lows broken
Above 10-week EMA; below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
In Correction
Daily
A red candle that opened lower with almost no lower shadow and small upper shadow; turning down from the resistance created by the down-gap of on March 9
forming an ABCD pattern (A on March 23, B on March31 and C on April 2); achieved 61.8% extension target near 2725.00; 100% extension target is near 2897.00
%K is below %D; potential Bearish Divergence
RSI-9 moving up in zig-zag manner; near 60; above 8-day RSI;
Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA;
In Correction; uptrend since March 23
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Rising in steps since April 2; broke above resistance level of 2846.00 on April 16 but is now below it; retraced back to an uptrend line from April 2
broke above a horizontal channel – from March 11 to April 6 between 2650.00 and 2174.00; the 61.8% extension target is near 2944.00 and 100% extension target is near 3126.00
Uptrend – high highs & higher lows – since 10:00 AM on March 23
RSI-21 down below 30 in zig-zag move from above 70
%K is crisscrossing %D below 20
Below 20-bar EMA; below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broke below a descending triangle; approaching 100% extension target near 2758.00; 161.8% extension target is near 2720.00
RSI-21 declined to near 30
%K is crisscrossing %D lower
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) moving down since 4:00 AM on Monday
The Bollinger Band was relatively narrow from 3:00 AM to 5:15 AM; expanding since with price walking down the lower band
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D near 20
Bias: Down
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, April 20 in lower volume. Indices opened lower but then tried to rise, which faltered by mid-day and they closed near the lows for the day. Russell 2000 made doji with almost equal sized upper and lower shadows and small real body. Other had almost no lower shadow and small upper shadow. All S&P sectors closed down though – Telecom closed higher for the day but Communication Services did not.
The S&P 500 declined 1.8% on Monday, although that was relatively modest given the implosion in the oil market where the expiring May contract for WTI crude closed negative for the first time ever. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.4%, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.0%, and the Russell 2000 declined 1.3%.
Specifically, WTI crude futures for May delivery collapsed 306%, or $55.83, to -$37.63/bbl ahead of tomorrow’s expiration …
[…]
All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in negative territory, near session lows, with the energy (-3.2%), real estate (-3.7%), and utilities (-3.9%) sectors leading the retreat. The health care (-0.8%) and communication services (-0.9%) sectors declined less than 1%.
[…]
U.S. Treasuries finished mixed with longer-dated maturities continuing to show relative strength. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.21%, while the 10-yr yield declined three basis points to 0.63%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 99.98.
