S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways to up since 5:45 AM after moving up from 12:00 AM
The odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2898.25 for change of fortune
Key economic data due:
Good Trade Balance (-64.2B vs. -55.0B est.; prev. -59.9B) at 8:30 AM
Prelim Wholesale Inventories (-1.0% vs. -0.4% est.; prev. -0.7%) at 8:30 AM
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI ( 3.5% vs. 3.1% est.; prev. 3.1%) at 9:00 AM
CB Consumer Confidence ( 88.3 est.; prev. 120.0) at 10:00 AM
Richmond Manufacturing Index ( -41 est.; prev. 2) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: In Correction
Daily: In Correction
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
15-Min: Up
6-Min: Up
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2887.72, 2867.38 and 2852.89
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2929.70, 2937.79 and 2943.88
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2916.00, the high of 6:00 PM on March 8 and break below 2898.00, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2869.25 and the index closed at 2878.48 – a spread of about -9.25 points; futures closed at 2869.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +37.50; Dow by +373 and NASDAQ by +92.00
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Hong Kong, Mumbai, Seoul and Singapore closed up; Shanghai, Tokyo and Sydney closed down
European markets are higher
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
INR/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
NatGas
Silver
Copper
Platinum
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
Crude Oil
Gold
Bond
10-yrs yield closed at 0.656%, up from April 24 close of 0.596%;
30-years is at 1.251%, up from 1.177%
2-years yield is at 0.270% up from 0.224%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.429 up from 0.379
VIX
Is at 31.58 down -1.71 from April 27 close; below 5-day SMA;
Down from all time high of 85.47 on March 18; recent high 47.77 on April 21, recent low 37.31 on April 14
Risk-On
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly
Uptrend under pressure
March 2020 was a large red top candle with large upper and lower shadows; index declined 12.5%;
Stochastic %K is below %D and near 30; %K Bearish Divergence
RSI-9 declined from above 75 to near 30; Bearish Divergence
Broke below the lower band of the 120-month regression channel to middle of the band; only third time since 2009 but first close below the lower bound
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows broken
Weekly:
The week ending on April 24 was a long-legged Doji (with small upper shadow);
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D above 50
RSI (9) is moving higher; near 50
Last week was down -37.82 or -1.3%; the 5-week ATR is 254.90
Last week’s pivot point=2810.94, R1=2894.78, R2=2952.82; S1=2752.90, S2=2669.06; S1 pivot level was breached
A down week; second in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
All time high of 3393.52, the last swing high, was during the week of February 17; broke below the low of the week of December 24, 2018; support near 2193.81, the high during the week of August 15, 2016; sequence of higher highs and higher lows broken
Above 10-week EMA; below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
In Correction
Daily
A relatively small green candle that gapped up at the open; with almost no lower shadow and small upper shadow; at a resistance near 2882.00
forming an ABCD pattern (A on March 23, B on March31 and C on April 2); achieved 61.8% extension target near 2725.00; 100% extension target is near 2897.00
%K is above %D; above 90
RSI-9 turning up; moving up in zig-zag manner; above 60; above 8-day RSI;
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA; below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA;
In Correction; uptrend since March 23
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Same as on Monday but higher Moving along below the uptrend line from March 23 that was broken on April 21; rising in steps since April 2;
broke above a horizontal channel – from March 11 to April 6 between 2650.00 and 2174.00; the 61.8% extension target is near 2944.00 and 100% extension target is near 3126.00
Sequence of higher highs & higher lows since 10:00 AM on March 23 is broken; new sequence of higher high and lower highs since April 21
RSI-21 moving up after declining to 35 at 8:00 PM on April 23; above 80;
%K is crossing below %D near 100
Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Moving up since 8:00 PM on April 21; moved sideways to up from 1:30 AM on Monday to 3:00 AM and moving up since
ABCD (A=2717.25, B=2836.75, C=2755.25); 100% extension target for D near 2874.00 is achieved and 161.8% extension target is near 2948.00
RSI-21 is moving higher since 12:00 AM from 50 to above 70;
%K is crisscrossing %D higher
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) moving up since 3:15 AM
The Bollinger Band narrowing since 3:15 AM with price mostly walking up the upper band
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D; above 80
Bias: Up
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, April 27 in mostly higher volume. S&P 500 traded in lower volume. Indices opened higher and then mostly traded higher closing near the highs for the day. Most indices are at a resistance ;eve; created by the down-gap of March 9. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 are breaking above it. All S&P sectors closed up.
The S&P 500 gained 1.5% on Monday, as investors showed optimism in reopening efforts indicated by more states and countries. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%) also advanced more than 1.0%, while the Russell 2000 outperformed with a 4.0% gain.
[…]
For instance, all 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the day higher, but strength was found in the S&P 500 financials (+3.6%) and materials (+2.6%) sectors, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+2.8%), and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 36.36, +1.82, +5.3%). The consumer staples sector (+0.3%) underperformed.
[…]
U.S. Treasuries finally showed some weakness amid the bullish price action in equities. The 2-yr yield increased three basis points to 0.23%, and the 10-yr yield increased six basis points to 0.66%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.3% to 100.07.
