Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher
• The odds are for an up with elevated volatility; good chance of sideways to down move from pre-open levels around 3165.00 – watch for break below 3091,25 for change of sentiments
• Key economic data due:
  • Retail Sales ( 17.7% vs. 7.9% est.; prev. -14.7%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core Retail Sales (12.4% vs. 5.5% est.; prev. -15.2%) at 8:30 AM
  • Capacity Utilization Rate ( 64.88% vs. 66.8% est.; prev. 64.0%) at 9:15 AM
  • Industrial Production ( 1.4% vs. 3.0% est.; prev. -12.5%) at 9:15 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3123.93, 3088.42 and 3079.38
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3163.84, 3199.21 and 3213.79
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3167.75, the high of 9:00 AM and break below 3091.25, the low of 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2020) closed at 3055.75 and the index closed at 3066.59. – a spread of about +0.25 points; futures closed at 3062.00 for the day; the fair value is -4.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +86.50; Dow by +930 and NASDAQ by +200.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are higher
• Currencies:
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	EUR/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD

• Commodities:
  

  Up	Down
  Crude Oil Gold Silver Copper Platinum Palladium Sugar Coffee Cotton Cocoa	NatGas

• Bond
  • 10-yrs yield is at 0.774%, up from June 15 close of 0.702;
  • 30-years is at 1.566%, up from 1.448%
  • 2-years yield is at 0.209% up from 0.201%
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.565 up from 0.501
• VIX
  • Is at 32.42; down -1.98 from June 15 close; above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high 44.44 on June 15; low 23.54 on June 5
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, June 15 in lower volume. Major indices gapped down at the open and made the lows in first hour of trading before reversing and trading higher for the rest of the day and closing near the highs. Most made Bullish Engulfing pattern and bounced off 50-day EMA. NASDAQ Composite found support at 20-day EMA. All S&P sectors closed higher.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 gained 0.8% on Monday to overcome an early 2.5% decline, as the market brushed aside coronavirus concerns and welcomed another aggressive policy update from the Fed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung nearly 1000 points from its bottom to close 0.6% higher. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%) and Russell 2000 (+2.3%) outperformed.

[…]

All 11 S&P 500 sectors traded sharply lower, but buyers gradually returned to buy the dip, which contributed to a steady rebound off early lows. Then, at 2:00 p.m. ET, the rebounding market received a noticeable pop into positive territory after the Fed announced it will start buying individual corporate bonds through its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility.

[…]

The financials sector (+1.4%) outperformed, even as banks noted a steady pace of net credit losses in May, followed by the consumer staples sector (+1.1%). The health care (+0.2%) and energy (+0.1%) sectors eked out small gains.

[…]

U.S. Treasuries exhibited an early flight-to-safety trade, which then unraveled with the rebound in equities. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield ended the session unchanged at 0.18% and 0.70%, respectively.

The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.6% to 96.71. WTI crude futures rose 1.9%, or $0.68, to $36.94/bbl.

Monday’s economic data was limited to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June, which improved to -0.2 (Briefing.com consensus -25.0) from -48.5 in May.