Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower;
• The odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways move from pre-open levels – watch for a break above 3913.50 for change of fortunes
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ( 23.1 vs.20.3 est.; prev. 26.5) at 8:30 AM
  • Building Permits ( 1.88M vs. 1.67M est.; prev. 1.70M) at 8:30 AM
  • Housing Starts ( 1.58M vs. 1.66M est.; prev. 1.67M) at 8:30 AM
  • Import Prices ( 1.4% vs. 1.0% est.; prev. 0.9%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment ( 861K vs. 775K est.; prev. 793K) at 8:30 AM
  • Consumer Confidence ( -15 est.; prev. -16 ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3900.43, 3890.39, and 3884.94
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3924.21, 3933.61, and 3940.88
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3924.75, the high of 3:30 AM and break below 3904.50, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2021) closed at 3928.00 and the index closed at 3931.33 – a spread of about -3.25 points; futures closed at 3928.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are down – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -16.25; Dow by -111, and NASDAQ by -108.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney closed up; Shanghai was closed
• European markets are mostly lower – Germany is higher
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Most soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.301%, up 17.0 BP from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.069%, up 15.7 BP;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.105%, down 1.2 BP;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.196, up from 1.014
• VIX
  • At 22.59 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  37.51 on January 29; low =  19.69 on February 10
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday, February 17 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Indices are near all-time highs and made small indecisive candlestick formations.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 (-0.03%) finished flat on Wednesday, battling back from an early 0.8% decline after finding support at the 3900 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) eked out a closing record high, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) and Russell 2000 (-0.7%) closed lower amid profit-taking pressure. […] Separately, the Fed-sensitive 2-yr yield decreased two basis points to 0.10%, as the FOMC Minutes from the January meeting corroborated the central bank’s dovish monetary policy stance. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.5% to 90.92. […] January retail sales surged 5.3% month-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.8%), aided by the receipt of stimulus checks and pent-up spending activity, and more than neutralized the downward revision for December to -1.0% from -0.7%. Excluding autos, retail sales soared 5.9% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.7%) and more than neutralized any disappointment that might have been attached to the downward revision for December to -1.8% from -1.4%.  […] The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.3% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) — the largest increase since the index began in December 2009 — while the index for final demand, less foods and energy, rose 1.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%). […] Industrial production increased 0.9% m/m in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) following a downwardly revised 1.3% increase (from 1.6%) in December. The capacity utilization rate jumped to 75.6% (Briefing.com consensus 74.9%) from an upwardly revised 74.9% (from 74.5%) in December. […] The NAHB Housing Market Index increased to 84 in February (Briefing.com consensus 86.0) from 83 in January. Business inventories increased 0.6% in December (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) following an unrevised 0.5% increase in November. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.1% following a 4.1% decline in the prior week. […] Russell 2000 +14.2% YTD Nasdaq Composite +8.4% YTD S&P 500 +4.7% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.3% YTD