Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are little changed- The odds are for a sideways day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4169 and a below 4156.75 for clarity
- Key economic data report due during the day:
- Unemployment Claims ( 498K vs. 540K est.; prev. 553K) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim Nonfarm Productivity ( 5.4% vs. 4.3% est.; prev. -4.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim Unit Costs ( -0.3% vs. -1.1% est.; prev. -6.0% ) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4160.94, 4146.39, and 4128.59
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4172.51, 4183.51, and 4188.03
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4169.00, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 4156.5, the low of 5:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2021) closed at 4161.00 and the index closed at 4167.59 – a spread of about -6.50 points; futures closed at 4160.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are little changed- at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00; Dow by +29, and NASDAQ by +6.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Sydney were down
- European markets are mostly lower – the UK and Italy are up
- Currencies (from two weeks ago):
Up Down - Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- NZD/USD
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- USD/CAD
- INR/USD
- Commodities (from two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher
- Precious metals are lower
- Industrial metals are higher
- Most soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
- 10-years yield closed at 1.584%, up +2.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
- 30-years is at 2.259%, down -0.5 basis points;
- 2-years yield is at 0.165%, up +1.2 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.419, up from 1.411
- VIX
- At 18.74 @ 6:45 AM; down from the last close; at/below 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 19.90 on April 22; low = 16.67 on April 28
- Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly |
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Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
From Briefing.com:
The S&P 500 increased 0.1% on Wednesday in a mixed session that favored the value and cyclical stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) outperformed for the third straight day and set fresh record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite decreased 0.4% after starting with a 0.9% gain. The Russell 2000 lost 0.3%. The energy (+3.3%), materials (+1.3%), and financials (+0.9%) sectors represented the cyclical leadership, partially due to rotational factors since oil prices ($65.63/bbl, -0.07, -0.1%) and Treasury yields were muted today.
[…]Conversely, the information technology (-0.2%), consumer discretionary (-0.4%), and communication services (-0.3%) sectors exerted the influential weakness after a half-hearted rebound bid to start the day. The lightly-weighted utilities (-1.7%) and real estate (-1.5%) sectors were the weakest performers.
[…]In the Treasury market, the 2-yr yield decreased one basis point to 0.15%, and the 10-yr yield decreased one basis point to 1.58%. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 91.27.
[…][…]
- The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 62.7% in April (Briefing.com consensus 65.0%) from 63.7% in March. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The April reading marks the eleventh straight month of growth for the services sector and follows a record high reading for March.
- […]
- The ADP Employment Change report estimated that 742,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls in April (Briefing.com consensus 810,000) following an upwardly revised 565,000 increase (from 517,000) in March. This was the largest increase since September 2020.
- The IHS Markit Services PMI for April was revised higher to 64.7% from 63.7% in the preliminary reading.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 0.9% following a 2.5% decline in the prior week.
- Russell 2000 +13.5% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +11.8% YTD
- S&P 500 +11.0% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +5.4% YTD
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +2.1%, FTSE +1.7%, CAC +1.4%
- Asia: Nikkei closed for holiday, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai closed for holiday
Commodities:
- Crude Oil -0.15 @ 65.57
- Nat Gas -0.03 @ 2.94
- Gold +8.30 @ 1785.00
- Silver unch @ 26.55
- Copper -0.01 @ 4.52