Morning Notes – Wednesday May 26, 2021

Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher
• The odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for a break below 4210.00 and a break below 4191.25 for clarity
• No key economic data report due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4191.03, 4182.52, and 4170.16
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4213.42, 4220.29, and 4236.39
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4210.00, the high of 9:30 AM on Tuesday and break below 4191.25, the low of 2:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2021) closed at 4185.75 and the index closed at 4188.13 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 4185.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.75; Dow by +72, and NASDAQ by +61.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly  higher – Sydney and Seoul closed down; Singapore was closed for trading
• European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland is higher
• Currencies (from two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY	Dollar index USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (from two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Most soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.564%, down -6.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.260%, down -9.1 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.150%, down -1.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.414, down from 1.463
• VIX
  • At 18.36 @ 7:45 AM; lower from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high =  25.96 on May 19; low =  16.68 on May 7
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, May 25 in mostly higher volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume. Indices mostly traded down after the first half-hour of the day.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 decreased 0.2% on Tuesday, fading a positive open, as the market took a breather while investors reassessed the growth outlook. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.03%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) also closed slightly lower while the Russell 2000 (-1.0%) underperformed with a 1.0% decline. […] The information technology sector (+0.1%), which is more oriented towards growth stocks, increased just 0.1%. The consumer discretionary sector (+0.3%) was the top-performer with a 0.3% gain. […] The 2-yr yield remained unchanged at 0.15%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.2% to 89.69. WTI crude futures settled higher by 0.1%, or $0.05, to $66.07/bbl. […] New home sales declined 5.9% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000 (Briefing.com consensus 980,000) from a downwardly revised 917,000 (from 1.021 million) in March. On a yr/yr basis, new home sales were up 48.3%, having lapped a very depressed comparison period due to the pandemic. […] The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index checked in at 117.2 in May (Briefing.com consensus 118.0) versus a downwardly revised 117.5 (from 121.7) in April. […] The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased 13.3% yr/yr in March (Briefing.com consensus 12.6%) following a revised 12.0% increase (from +11.9%) in February. The FHFA Housing Price Index increased 1.4% m/m in March following a revised 1.1% increase (+0.9%) in February. […] Russell 2000 +11.7% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.1% YTD S&P 500 +11.5% YTD Nasdaq Composite +6.0% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE -0.3%, CAC -0.3% Asia: Nikkei +0.7%, Hang Seng +1.8%, Shanghai +2.4% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.15 @ 66.10 Nat Gas +0.02 @ 2.98 Gold +14.80 @ 1898.90 Silver +0.20 @ 28.08 Copper -0.03 @ 4.51