Morning Notes – Tuesday June 15, 2021

/ June 15, 2021

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are a bit higher; declined from the Asian session high of 4258.25 to near 4250.00;
  • The odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for a break below 4245.75 for a change of sentiments
  • Key economic data report due during the day:
    • PPI  (0.8% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM
    • Core PPI ( -0.7% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. -0.8%) at 8:30 AM
    • Retail Sales ( -1.3% vs. -0.6% est.; prev. 0.9%) at 8:30 AM
    • Empire State Manufacturing Index ( 17.4 vs. 22.2 est. ; prev. 24.3) at 8:30 AM
    • Industrial Production ( 0.6% est.; prev. 0.7%) at 9:15 AM
    • Capacity Utilization ( 75.2% est.; prev. 74.9%) at 9:15 AM
    • Business Inventories ( -0.1% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 10:00 AM
    • NAHB Housing Market Index (83 est.; prev. 83) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4239.96, 4232.25, and 4220.34;
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4249.74, 4253.13, and 4258.82
  • Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4258.25, the high of 2:45 AM and break below 4245.75, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4247.25 and the index closed at 4255.15 – a spread of about -8.00 points; futures closed at 4245.75 for the day; the fair value is +1.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.00; Dow by +3, and NASDAQ by +15.25

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Hong Kong closed lower
  • European markets are mostly higher – Italy and Switzerland are lower
  • Currencies (from two weeks ago):
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • INR/USD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (from two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher
    • Precious metals are lower
    • Industrial metals are lower
    • Most soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
    • 10-years yield closed at 1.501%, down -11.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • 30-years is at 2.190%, down -10.6 basis points;
    • 2-years yield is at 0.157%, up +0.9 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.344, down from 1.467
  • VIX
    • At 16.53 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; at/above 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high =  25.96 on May 19; low =  15.15 on June 8
    • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-to-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • May 2021 was a Doji with a small upper shadow and a long lower shadow; at all-time closing and intra-month highs;
    • Stochastic %K above %D near 100;
    • RSI-9 near 80; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018
    • Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel;
  • The sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:
  • The week ending on June 11 was a small green candle at all-time highs with almost no upper shadow and a small lower shadow
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D;
    • RSI (9) is just above 70
  • The week was up +17.55 or +0.4%; the 5-week ATR is 95.37
  • An up week; third in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks
  • The weekly week pivot point=4235.20, R1=4261.98, R2=4276.53; S1=4220.65, S2=4193.87; No pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily
  • A small green candle at all-times highs; driving sideways to up for the past few days
    • %K is above %D above 90
    • RSI-9 is near 70; above 8-day EMA
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting higher; Moving up since 8:00 AM on June 3 after breaking above a sideways move from 12:00 PM on May 24
    • RSI-21 declined to just above 60 after making Bearish Divergence
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways since 8:00 PM on Monday;
    • RSI-21 is declined to near 55 from near 70;
    • At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to up since 10:00 PM
  • The Bollinger Band is contracting after a brief expansion; price drifting to the middle band from the lower band
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D; near 70
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday, June 14 in mixed volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite. and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed up. S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all-times closing and intraday highs. NASDAQ Composite closed at its all-time high. Dow Jones Transportation Average and S&P 500 traded in lower volume. Major indices traded lower for most of the day but turned around in the last hour of trading.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 (+0.2%) eked out intraday and closing record highs on Monday, helped by an unprovoked wave of buyers in the last 30 minutes of action. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%) outperformed and closed at its first record high since April amid increased demand for large-cap technology stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) and Russell 2000 (-0.4%) underperformed in negative territory.

The information technology (+1.0%) and communication services (+0.7%) sectors were steady leaders for most of the day, while the materials (-1.3%), financials (-1.0%), and industrials (-0.5%) struggled throughout the day.

[…]

This was interesting because the 10-yr yield increased four basis points to 1.50%,

[…]

The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.15%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.1% to 90.50. WTI crude futures decreased 0.1%, or $0.09, to $70.91/bbl.

[…]
  • Russell 2000 +17.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +13.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.4% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +10.0% YTD

Overseas: 

  • Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC +0.2%
  • Asia: Nikkei +0.7%, Hang Seng CLOSED, Shanghai CLOSED

Commodities: 

  • Crude Oil -0.09 @ 70.91
  • Nat Gas +0.07 @ 3.36
  • Gold -13.50 @ 1865.90
  • Silver +0.01 @ 28.04
  • Copper -0.01 @ 4.53
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Related posts