The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility and a good chance of sideways to up move from the pre-open levels around 4290.00 – watch for a break above 4305.25
Key economic data report due during the day:
Unemployment Claims ( 373K vs. 345K est.; prev. 364K) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Side-Down
30-Min: Side-Down
15-Min: Down
6-Min: Down-Side
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4287..04, 4274.67, and 4171.16
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4303.92, 4314.37, and 4329.79
Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4297.00, the high of 7:00 AM on Tuesday and break below 4279.25, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2021) closed at 4349.75 and the index closed at 4358.13 – a spread of about -8.50 points; futures closed at 4349.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.0
Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -56.00; Dow by -466, and NASDAQ by -195.75
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney closed up;
European markets are lower
Currencies (from two weeks ago):
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
INR/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities (from two weeks ago):
Energy futures are mixed
Precious metals are higher
Industrial metals are mixed
Most soft commodities are mostly lower
Treasuries (from two weeks ago)
10-years yield closed at 1.286%, down -20.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
30-years is at 1.903%, down -20.9 basis points;
2-years yield is at 0.220%, down -4.5 basis points;
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.073, down from 1.222
VIX
At 20.69 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
Recent high = 21.82 on June 21; low = 14.10 on June 29
Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
Monthly
Confirmed Uptrend
May 2021 was a Doji with a small upper shadow and a long lower shadow; at all-time closing and intra-month highs;
Stochastic %K above %D near 100;
RSI-9 near 80; broke above a downtrend line from January 2018
Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel;
The sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:
The week ending on July 2 was a green candle that gapped up at the open and made all-time highs with almost no lower and upper shadows
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; near 100
RSI (9) is just above 70
The week was up +71.64 or +1.7%; the 5-week ATR is 80.14
An up week; fourth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the last ten weeks
The weekly pivot point=4327.48, R1=4380.29, R2=4408.24; S1=4299.53, S2=4246.72; R1 pivot level was breached
Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
Uptrend since March 23, 2020
Daily
A small green long-legged harami candle with small upper shadow;
%K crossed above below %D; above 90
RSI-9 is turned up above 75; above 8-day EMA
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day, and 200-day SMA
Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Declined from the all-time high of 4353.25 at 2:00 PM on Wednesday to 4279.25 by 8:00 AM
RSI-21 declined to below 20 after making Bearish Divergence on Wednesday
Below EMA20; which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Broke below a Double Top/Horizontal Channel – upper bound 4348.00 and lower bound 4305.25; almost achieved the 61.8% extension target near 4279.00; the 100% extension target is near 4262.50
RSI-21 moving up from below 20 to near 40 after making a Bullish Divergence
Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 11:00 PM
The Bollinger Band is expanded since 2:30 Am with price mostly walking down the lower band
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D higher
Bias: Down
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, July 7 in mixed volume. Russell 2000 closed lower. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. The major indices opened higher but then declined during the morning session before turning around midday and recovering the losses and closing higher.
