Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM;
• The odds are for an up day with a good chance of sideways to a down move from pre-open levels around 4610.00 – watch for a break above 4619.25 and a break below 4602.00 for clarity
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Final Manufacturing ( 59.2 est.; prev. 59.2) at 9:45 AM
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI  ( 60.4 est.; prev. 61.1) at 10:00 AM
  • Construction Spending ( 0.6% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 10:00 AM
  • ISM Manufacturing Prices ( 82.5 est.; prev. 81.2) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4608.08, 4589.00, and 4567.59
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4619.78, 47=634.17, and 4660.27
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4619.50, the high of 7:00 PM and break below 4602.00, the low of 2:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2021) closed at 4597.25 and the index closed at 4605.38 – a spread of about -8.25 points; futures closed at 4597.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +17.25; Dow by +144; and NASDAQ by +52.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Hong Kong closed lower
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.577%, up +0.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 1.966%, down -8.5 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.501%, up +10.6 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.076, down from 1.181
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.389, down from 0.475
• VIX
  • At 16.64 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 24.89 on October 1; low =  14.84 on October 22
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Friday, October 29, in mixed volume. The major indices opened lower but then drifted higher for the rest of the day. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite made all-time closing and intraday highs. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all-time closing highs.

For the week, major US indices mostly closed higher in mostly higher volume. NYSE Composite was down. The markets in Asia closed mostly lower and the European markets were up. Energy futures were mixed. Most hard commodities were down and most soft commodities were up.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) set intraday and closing record highs on Friday in a resilient, yet defensive, session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) also closed at a record high with a comparable 0.3% gain, while the Russell 2000 (-0.03%) closed fractionally lower. […] The mega-cap gains helped mitigate the negative influence from seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors. The real estate sector (-1.2%) underperformed and was the only sector that lost more than 1.0%. […] The 10-yr yield decreased one basis point to 1.56% after flirting with 1.63% in the wake of the PCE data. The 2-yr yield decreased one basis point to 0.49% after flirting with 0.56% intraday. WTI crude futures rose 0.9%, or $0.73, to $83.52/bbl. […] Personal income declined 1.0% month-over-month in September (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%) with the expiration of unemployment benefits and decreases in general in government social benefits. Personal spending was up 0.6% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%). The PCE Price Index increased 0.3% month-over-month, as expected, and the core-PCE Price Index increased 0.2%, also in-line with estimates. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index was up 4.4%, versus 4.2% in August, and the core-PCE Price Index was up 3.6% for the fourth straight month, exuding some stickiness in inflation pressures. [ …] The final October University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 71.7 (Briefing.com consensus 71.4) from the preliminary reading of 71.4. The final reading for September was 72.8. […] The Q3 Employment Cost Index was up 1.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.8%) following a 0.7% increase in the second quarter. Wages and salaries, which account for about 70% of compensation costs, increased 1.5%, while benefit costs, which make up the remainder of compensation costs, increased 0.9%. […] The Chicago PMI increased to 68.4 in October (Briefing.com consensus 63.1) from 64.7 in September. […] S&P 500 +22.6% YTD Nasdaq Composite +20.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +17.0% YTD Russell 2000 +16.3% YTD