Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower 9:00 AM; declined more than 20 points since 8:00 AM
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility; watch for a break above 4464.25 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ( 16.0 vs. 19.9 est.; prev. 23.2) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 248K vs. 227K est; prev. 225K) at 8:30 AM
  • Building Permits ( 1.90M vs. 1.70M; prev. 1.89M) at 8:30 AM
  • Housing Starts ( 1.64M vs. 1.70M est.; prev. 1.70M) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4429.28, 4394.52, and 4364.84
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4472.26, 4489.55, and 4495.10
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4464.25, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 4431.00, the low of 8:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2022) closed at 4470.25 and the index closed at 4475.01 – a spread of about -4.75 points; futures closed at 4470.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -30.75; Dow by -206; and NASDAQ by -124.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo and Mumbai closed lower
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	Dollar index

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.979%, up +21.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.298%, up +20.4 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 1.522%, up +36.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.457, down from 0.613
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.319, down from 0.328
• VIX
  • At 24.99 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 32.04 on February 14; low = 19.93 on February 9
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday, February 16, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed lower. Dow Jones Transportation Average and S&P 5oo traded in lower volume. The indices opened lower and then traded sideways before rising in the final hour of trading.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 increased 0.1% on Wednesday, as the market reacted positively to the FOMC Minutes from the January meeting. Earlier in the day, the benchmark index was down as much as 0.9% amid negative-sounding Russia-Ukraine headlines. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.1% after being down 1.5% intraday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2% after being down 1.0% intraday. The Russell 2000 gained 0.1% after being down 0.8% intraday. […] Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were trading lower with the exception being energy (+0.8%) amid higher oil prices ($93.83, +1.76, +1.9%). […] Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the session in positive territory, with materials (+0.7%) finishing in second place behind energy. The information technology (-0.2%) and communication services (-0.2%) sectors closed slightly lower. […] The 2-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.52%. The 10-yr yield, meanwhile, was unchanged at 2.05% […] The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 95.78. Oil prices turned negative post-settlement. […] Total retail sales for January increased 3.8% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 1.9%) following a downwardly revised 2.5% decline (from -1.9%) in December. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 3.3% month-over-month following a downwardly revised 2.8% decline (from -2.3%) in December. […] Total industrial production increased 1.4% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) following an unrevised 0.1% decline in December. The capacity utilization rate jumped to 77.6% (Briefing.com consensus 76.8%) from an upwardly revised 76.6% (from 76.5%) in December. […] Import prices rose 2.0% in January after decreasing 0.4% in December. Excluding oil, import prices rose 1.4% after increasing 0.5% in December. Export prices rose 2.9% after decreasing 1.6% in December. Excluding agriculture, export prices rose 2.9% after decreasing 1.9% in December. The NAHB Housing Market Index for February decreased to 82 (Briefing.com consensus 83) from 83 in January. Business inventories increased 2.1% m/m in December (Briefing.com consensus 2.1%) following a revised 1.5% increase (from 1.3%) in November. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.4% following an 8.1% decline in the prior week. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.9% YTD S&P 500 -6.1% YTD Russell 2000 -7.4% YTD Nasdaq Composite -9.7% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.3%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.2% Asia: Nikkei +2.2%, Hang Seng +1.5%, Shanghai +0.6% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.62 @ 93.67 Nat Gas +0.37 @ 4.69 Gold +18.20 @ 1873.50 Silver +0.27 @ 23.62 Copper +0.01 @ 4.54