Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM; moving down since 5:15 AM
• The odds are for a sideways to an up day with elevated volatility; watch for a break above 4343.00 and break below 4278.25 for clarity
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  ( 475K vs. 378K est.; prev 509K) at 8:17 AM
  • Semi-annual testimony of the Fed Chair to the Congress at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4309.44, 4279.54, and 4238.38
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4328.43, 4347.67, and 4378.45
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4343.00, the high of 5:00 AM, and break below 4278.25, the low of 2:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2022) closed at 4303.25 and the index closed at 4306.26 – a spread of about -3.00 points; futures closed at 4303.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +13.25; Dow by +131; and NASDAQ by +40.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney and Seoul closed higher
• European markets are mostly higher -Italy and Switzerland are down
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.707%, down -33.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 2.104%, down -25.8 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 1.349%, down -22.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.358, down from 0.474
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.397, up from 0.317
• VIX
  • At 32.62 @ 7:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 37.79 on February 24; low = 23.88 on February 16
  • Sentiment: Risk-On (High Volatility)

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, March 1, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportations Average and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. Major indices traded down from the open, though they moved mostly sideways near the end of trading.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 fell 1.6% on Tuesday in a risk-off session, which saw oil prices peak above $106 per barrel and Treasury yields drop noticeably in response to worsening geopolitical tensions. The Nasdaq Composite (-1.6%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.8%), and Russell 2000 (-1.9%) also declined more than 1.5%. […] Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower, with the financials sector (-3.7%) taking the brunt of the damage and the information technology sector (-1.9%) acting as a heavy drag. Growth and value stocks alike declined together. The energy sector (+1.0%), unsurprisingly, closed higher, but it was a little surprising to see just a 1.0% gain when oil prices settled higher by 8.3%, or $7.88, to $103.41/bbl. […] The 10-yr yield accordingly dropped 13 basis points to 1.71% (-28 bps in two days). The 2-yr yield also dropped 13 basis points to 1.30% (-27 bps in two sessions) […] The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.7% to 97.35. The CBOE Volatility Index rose 10.5% to 33.32. Gold futures rose 2.3% to $1944.70/ozt. […] The February ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 58.6% (Briefing.com consensus 58.0%) from 57.6% in January. A number above 50.0% is indicative of expansion. February marked the 21st straight month of expansion for the manufacturing sector. […] Total construction spending increased 1.3% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus -0.4%) following an upwardly revised 0.8% increase (from 0.2%) in December. That was the strongest increase since the same period a year ago. […] The final IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for February decreased to 57.3 from 57.5 in the preliminary reading. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -8.4% YTD S&P 500 -9.7% YTD Russell 2000 -10.6% YTD Nasdaq Composite -13.5% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -3.9%, FTSE -1.7%, CAC -3.9% Asia: Nikkei +1.2%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Shanghai +0.8% Commodities:  Crude Oil +8.09 @ 103.43 Nat Gas +0.16 @ 4.58 Gold +44.70 @ 1944.60 Silver +1.17 @ 25.55 Copper +0.11 @ 4.59