Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are a bit lower at 9:00 AM; rising since 3:30 AM – up more than 15 points
• The odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for a break above 3988.75 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Flash Services PMI ( 47.0 vs. 52.6 est.; prev. 52.7) at 10:00 AM
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI ( 52.3 vs. 52.0 est.; prev. 52.7 ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3984.83, 3968.47, and 3950.93
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3998.85, 4017.17, and 4048.17
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4004.75, the high at 4:00 PM and a break below 3988.00, the low at 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 4002.75,  and the index closed at 3998.95 – a spread of about +3.75 points; the futures closed at 4001.25; the fair value is +1.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.75, Dow up by +110; and NASDAQ down by -28.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney, and Seoul closed down; Tokyo, Mumbai,  Hong Kong, and Singapore closed up
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	EUR/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 2.805%, down -20.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.005%, down -18.9 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.100%, up +8.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.295, up from -0.012
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.203, up from 0.186
• VIX
  • At 22.92 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 29.06 on July 13; low = 19.81 on April 21
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday, July 21, in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded lower in higher volume. The major indices opened lower but turned around in the first hour and then mostly traded higher for the rest of the day.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The S&P 500, which flirted with 3,600 in mid-June, closed a whisker shy of 4,000. […] The Bank of Japan lowered its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.9% and the ECB announced a larger-than-expected 50-basis point increase for its key lending rates. […] Small and mid cap stocks underperformed on the day with the Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.6%) closing behind the broader market. […] WTI crude oil futures settled the session down 3.4% to $96.49/bbl. Natural gas futures fell 1.2% to $7.79/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures fell 3.7% to $3.15/gal. […] The 2-yr note yield closed down 15 basis points at 3.09% while the 10-yr note yield fell 13 basis points to 2.91%. […] Weekly Initial Claims 251K (Briefing.com consensus 240K); Prior 244K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.384 mln; Prior was revised to 1.333 mln from 1.331 mln […] July Philadelphia Fed Index -12.3 (Briefing.com consensus -1.2); Prior -3.3 June Leading Economic Index -0.8% (Briefing.com consensus -0.5%); Prior was revised to -0.6% from -0.4% Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a build of 32 bcf vs a build of 58 bcf last week […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -11.4% YTD S&P 400: -14.9% YTD S&P 500: -16.1% YTD Russell 2000: -18.2% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -22.9% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.3%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC +0.3% Asia: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng -1.5%, Shanghai -1.0% Commodities:  Crude Oil -3.37 @ 96.49 Nat Gas -0.09 @ 7.78 Gold +11.40 @ 1712.40 Silver +0.06 @ 18.65 Copper -0.02 @ 3.28