Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; declined 90 points in one minute following the CPI report  at 8:30 AM
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4043.75 and a break above 4080.25 for clarity
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • CPI ( 0.1% vs. -0.1% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core CPI ( 0.6% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.3% ) at 8:30 AM
  • NFIB Small Business Index ( 91.8 vs. 90.9 est.; prev. 89.9) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4045.97, 4022.94, and 4010.50
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4062.99, 4076.81, and 4083.67
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4080.25, the low of 12:30 AM on September 12 and a break below 4043.75, the low of 9:00 AM on September 9

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 4130.50, and the index closed at 4110.41 – a spread of about +20.00 points; the futures closed at 4130.00; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down  by -60.50, Dow by -364, and NASDAQ by -256.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong was down
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.362%, up +25.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.513%, up +26.6 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.628%, up +19.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.266, up from -0.327
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.151, up from 0.137
• VIX
  • At 24.41 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 27.69 on August 30; low = 21.67 on August 26
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, September 12, in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in higher volume. The major indices gapped up at the open and reached the day’s high in early trading. For the rest of the day, the indices traded mostly sideways with an upward bias. All S&P sectors closed up for the day.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The stock market had another strong showing today due to carryover upside momentum to build on recent gains. The major indices saw choppy action, but held onto decent gains for the entirety of today’s session. […] The US Dollar Index was down 0.6% to 108.35 as the EUR/USD rose 0.7% to 1.0116. […] The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) (+0.9%) and the S&P 500 (+1.1%) both closed with sizable gains. […] Advancers led decliners by a greater than 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 3-to-2 margin at the Nasdaq. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green with gains ranging from 0.4% (consumer staples) to 1.8% (energy). […] Today’s $32 billion 10-yr note auction was met with relatively weak demand. The high yield of 3.33% tailed the when-issued yield of 3.303%. […] The 2-yr note yield settled down one basis point to 3.56%. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -10.9% YTD S&P 400: -11.2% YTD S&P 500: -13.8% YTD Russell 2000: -15.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -21.6% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +2.4%, FTSE +1.7%, CAC +2.0% Asia: Nikkei +1.2%, Hang Seng holiday, Shanghai holiday Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.49 @ 87.84 Nat Gas +0.28 @ 8.31 Gold +11.90 @ 1738.00 Silver +1.12 @ 19.83 Copper +0.06 @ 3.61