Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM; down more than 50 points from 3:30 PM; moving sideways with large fluctuations since 2:15 AM between 3716.00 and 3673.00- The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3711.50 for a change in sentiments
- The key economic data report is due during the day:
- Final GDP ( -0.6% vs. -0.6% est.; prev. -0.6%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims ( 193K vs. 215K est.; prev. 209K) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3673.92, 3646.01, and 3635.28
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3696.53, 3717.69, and 3736.74
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3711.50, the high of 7:15 AM and a break below 3673.00, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3732.50, and the index closed at 3719.04 – a spread of about +13.50 points; the futures closed at 3732.00; the fair value is +0.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -48.75, Dow by -306, and NASDAQ by -189.50
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Singapore closed lower; Tokkyo, Sydney, and Seoul closed higher
- European markets are lower
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are lower
- Precious metals are mixed
- Industrial metals are lower
- Soft commodities are mostly lower
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.794%, up +38.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.741%, up +27.2 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.139%, up +35.5 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.345, down from -0.372
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at -0.053, down from 0.057
- VIX
- At 31.92 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 35.05 on June 13; low = 22.64 on September 9
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
The major indices opened higher and then mostly traded higher for the rest of the day.
Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite have broken below their respective June lows. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 200, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market index are near their lows.
From Briefing.com:
[…] The S&P 500, which set a new low for the year yesterday (3623.29), broke a six-session losing streak and closed above the 3,700 level.
[…]The 10-yr note yield breached the 4.00% level overnight
[…]The 10-yr note yield dropped 26 basis points on the day to 3.71% and the 2-yr note yield dropped 21 basis points to 3.71%.
The U.S. Dollar Index also fell noticeably after the announcement, down 1.2% to 112.75 with GBP/USD +1.4% to 1.0879.
[…]Despite losses for Apple, the information technology sector was able to squeeze out a 0.9% gain. Notably, it finished the session in last place for the 11 S&P 500 sectors. Energy (+4.4%) and communication services (+3.2%) rose to the top of the leaderboard.
[…]
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index showed a 3.7% drop following last week’s 3.8% increase
- August Advance report for International Trade in Goods showed a deficit of $87.3 billion versus the revised deficit of $90.2 billion (from $89.1 billion) in July. The Advance report for Retail Inventories rose 1.4% versus the increase of 1.1% in July. The Advance report for Wholesale Inventories rose 1.3% versus July’s revised increase of 0.6% (form 0.8%)
- August Pending Home Sales dropped 2.0% (Briefing.com consensus -0.5%) following a revised 0.8% decrease (from 1.0%) in July
- Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 0.215 million barrels after last week’s 1.14 million barrel build
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -18.3% YTD
S&P Midcap 400: -20.3% YTD
S&P 500: -22.0% YTD
Russell 2000: -23.6% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: -29.4% YTDOverseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +0.2%
- Asia: Nikkei -1.5%, Hang Seng -3.4%, Shanghai -1.6%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +3.19 @ 81.96
- Nat Gas +0.14 @ 6.93
- Gold +35.20 @ 1670.70
- Silver +0.59 @ 18.93
- Copper +0.09 @ 3.38