Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM; moving up and down since 5:00 AM between 3804.25 and 3790.00;
• The odds are for a sideways to a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3804.25 and a break below 3790.00 for clarity
• The key economic data report is due during the day:
  • HPI ( -0.7% vs. -0.7% est.; prev. -0.6%) at 9:00 AM
  • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (13.1% vs. 14.0% est.; prev. 16;0%) at 9:00 AM
  • CB Consumer Confidence ( 105.9 est.; prev. 108.0) at 10:00 AM
  • Richmond Manufacturing Index (-5 est.; prev. 0) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3776.91, 3765.70, and 3741.65
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3807.71, 3819.34, and 3834.43
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3804.75, the high at 7:30 AM, and a break below 3790.00, the low of 6:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3809.50, and the index closed at 3797.34 – a spread of about +12.25 points; the futures closed at 3809.25; the fair value is 0.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -15.00, Dow by -188, and NASDAQ by -22.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Seoul closed lower; Tokyo, Syndey, Mumbai, and Singapore closed higher
• European markets are mixed – Germany, the UK, Italy, and Stoxx 600 are lower; France, Spain, and Switzerland are up
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.171%, up +28.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.331%, up +48.3 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.492%, up +18.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.321, up from -0.424
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.160, up from -0.040
• VIX
  • At 29.81 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 34.88 on September 28; low = 28.50 on October 5
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, October 24, in lower volume. The major indices opened higher and traded higher for most of the day.  All but two S&P sectors – Real Estate and Materials, closed up for the day.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The stock market logged sizable gains today, building on last week’s rally. […] The S&P 500, which slipped below 3,500 on October 13, briefly traded above 3,800 before ending just below that level. The 10-yr note yield ultimately settled up two basis points to 4.23%. The 2-yr note yield fell three basis points to 4.48%. […] Many stocks came along for the rally, which left nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors in positive territory. Health care (+1.9%) held the top spot while materials (-0.6%) fell to the bottom. […] Energy complex futures settled in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures fell 0.3% to $84.64.bbl while natural gas futures rose 5.2% to $5.21/mmbtu. […] Economic data today was limited to the preliminary October IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 49.9 versus the prior reading of 52.0 and the preliminary October IHS Markit Services PMI came in at 46.6 versus the prior reading of 49.3. Dow Jones Industrial Average: -13.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -18.1% YTD S&P 500: -20.3% YTD Russell 2000: -22.1% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -30.0% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +1.6%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC +1.6% Asia: Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng -6.4%, Shanghai -2.0% Commodities:  Crude Oil -0.27 @ 84.64 Nat Gas +0.26 @ 5.21 Gold -4.70 @ 1654.10 Silver -0.04 @ 18.15 Copper -0.04 @ 3.42