Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:15 AM; moving within a Horizontal Channel between 3881.25 and 3852.50 since 10:15 AM on Tuesday
• The odds are for a sideways to down day at least until the afternoon and before the FOMC statement and press conference – watch for a break above 3881.25 and below 3852.50 for clarity
• The key economic data report is due during the day:
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ( 239K vs. 178K est.; prev. 192K) at 8:15 AM
  • FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
  • Fed Funds Rate ( 4.00% est.; prev. 3.25%) at 2:00 PM
  • FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3843.80, 3819.74, and 3803.79
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3867.80, 3892.24, and 3911.79
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3881.25, the high at 4:30 AM, and a break below 3852.50, the low of 11:30 PM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3865.00, and the index closed at 3856.10 – a spread of about +9.00 points; the futures closed at 3866.00; the fair value is -1.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower  – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.50, Dow by -70, and NASDAQ up by +0.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo ad Mumbai closed lower
• European markets are mostly lower – Italy and Switzerland are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.038%, up +4.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.095%, up +7.4 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.491%, up +4.7 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.453, down from -0.446
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.057, up from 0.023
• VIX
  • At 26.33 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; at/above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 34.88 on September 28; low = 22.64 on September 9
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Tuesday, November 1, in mostly lower volume. Russell 200 and NYSE Composite Index closed higher. Russell 2000 traded in higher volume.

Most major indices made Bearish Engulfing candles.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The stock market kicked off November on an upbeat note. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq were up 1.0%, 1.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, at this morning’s highs. […] The market quickly shifted to retreat mode, though, […] The 10-yr Treasury note yield, which was below 4.00% while stocks rallied, settled at 4.05%. The 2-yr note yield, at 4.43% earlier, settled at 4.51%. […] After dealing with the initial retreat, the stock market reverted to wait-and-see mode and stuck to a fairly narrow trading range for the remainder of the session. […] Notably, small and mid cap stocks fared better than their larger peers today. The Russell 2000 (+0.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.4%) sported a modest gain while the three main indices closed below the flat line. […] Roughly half of the 11 S&P 500 sectors suffered a loss today with communication services (-1.3%) buried in last place. Meanwhile, energy (+1.1%) sat atop the leaderboard […] The October ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 50.2% (Briefing.com consensus 50.0%) from 50.9% in September. A number above 50.0% is indicative of expansion, yet the lower reading versus September points to a deceleration in overall manufacturing activity. October marked the 29th consecutive month of expansion in the manufacturing sector, yet it was the lowest reading since May 2020. […] Total construction spending increased 0.2% month-over-month in September (Briefing.com consensus -0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.6% decline (from -0.7%) in August. Total private construction was up 0.4% month-over-month while total public construction spending was down 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 10.9%. […] JOLTS Job openings totaled 10.717 million in September from the prior revised total of 10.280 million (from 10.053 million). Dow Jones Industrial Average: -10.1% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -14.1% YTD S&P 500: -19.1% YTD Russell 2000: -17.5% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -30.4% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.%6, FTSE +1.3%, CAC +1.0% Asia: Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng +5.2%, Shanghai +2.6% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.90 @ 88.40 Nat Gas -0.46 @ 6.13 Gold +13.90 @ 1652.70 Silver +0.56 @ 19.71 Copper +0.09 @ 3.46