Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:15 AM; moving up following the Non-Farm Payroll report and after declining more than 40 points to 3713.50;
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 374925 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report is due during the day:
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ( 239K vs. 178K est.; prev. 192K) at 8:15 AM
  • FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
  • Fed Funds Rate ( 4.00% est.; prev. 3.25%) at 2:00 PM
  • FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3843.80, 3819.74, and 3803.79
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3867.80, 3892.24, and 3911.79
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3782.50, the high at 1:30 AM on November 3, and a break below 3749.25, the low of 8:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3726.25, and the index closed at 3719.89 – a spread of about +7.25 points; the futures closed at 3727.75; the fair value is -1.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +25.50, Dow by +184, and NASDAQ by +70.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong closed lower
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.124%, down -10.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.152%, down -6.4 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.729%, up +11.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.603, down from -0.384
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.028, up from -0.010a
• VIX
  • At 24.92 @ 9:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 34.88 on September 28; low = 22.64 on September 9
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday, November 3, in lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher.

Most major indices gapped down at the open. Some closed the gap, and some did not. After the initial decline, the market bounced up and then traded sideways until the last half hour of trading, when it declined slightly. Indices made either Spinning Top or Doji candles.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Shortly after the open, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down 1.2%, 1.9%, and 1.6%, respectively. The major averages recovered from those levels as Treasury yields pulled back from overnight highs and the S&P 500 found support at the 3,700 level. The market took another leg lower ahead of the close, weighed down by lagging mega cap stocks. […] The 2-yr note yield settled the session at 4.72% and the 10-yr note yield settled at 4.12%. […] Roughly half of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the red. Information technology (-3.0%) was buried in last place while energy (+2.0%) sat atop the leaderboard. […] Weekly Initial Claims 217K (Briefing.com consensus 222K); Prior was revised to 218K from 217K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.485 mln; Prior 1.438 mln […] September Trade Balance -$73.3 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$71.0 bln); Prior was revised to -$65.7 bkn from -$67.4 bln […] Q3 Productivity-Prel 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior -4.1%; Q3 Unit Labor Costs-Prel 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 4.2%); Prior was revised to 8.9% from 10.2% […] October IHS Markit Services PMI – Final 47.8; Prior 46.6 September Factory Orders 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.0% […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -11.9% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -16.7% YTD S&P 500: -22.0% YTD Russell 2000: -20.7% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -33.9% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.0%6 FTSE +0.6%, CAC -0.5% Asia: Nikkei market closed, Hang Seng -3.1%, Shanghai -0.2% Commodities:  Crude Oil -1.72 @ 88.07 Nat Gas -0.24 @ 6.31 Gold -33.60 @ 1631.40 Silver -0.39 @ 19.47 Copper -0.05 @ 3.42