Morning Notes – Tuesday, November 29, 2022

/ November 29, 2022

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are a bit higher at 8:15 AM, declining since 3:30 AM from 3990.25, down more than 15 points
  • The odds are for a down-to-sideways day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3990.25 and a break below 3960.50 for clarity
  • No key economic data report is due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Side-Down
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min:  Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3955.77, 3945.24, and 3933.34
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3984.63, 3997.60, and 4012.27
  • The key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3984.25, the high at 5:30 AM, and a break below 3969.25, the low of 7:00 PM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3968.50, and the index closed at 3963.94 – a spread of about +4.50 points; the futures closed at 3970.25; the fair value is -1.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.75, Dow by +18, and NASDAQ by +51.75

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East mainly closed higher – Tokyo closed down
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CHF
  • NZD/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • AUD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed
    • Precious metals are lower
    • Industrial metals are lower
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 3.703%, down -16.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • The 30-year is at 3.750%, down -30.8 basis points;
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.442%, up +5.1 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.739, down from -0.526
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.047, down from 0.193
  • VIX
    • At 22.08 @ 7:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 26.59 on November 10; low = 20.31 on November 24
    • Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on November 25 was a green candle following a Doji, indicating a bullish turn following an indecisive week
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D near 90;
    • RSI-9 is above 55
  • The week was up +60.78 or +1.5%; the 5-week ATR  is 171.53
  • An up week, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks;
  • The weekly pivot point=3997.83, R1=402.31, R2=4098.51; S1=3961.63, S2=3897.15; T1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A red candle with almost no upper and lower shadows that gapped down;
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D
    • RSI-9 turned down below 60; below 8-day EMA;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day SMA; below 200-day SMA;
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting lower and making a rounding top pattern since 10:00 AM on November 23
    • RSI-21 is around 35
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving down since 6:00 PM on Sunday following a gap-down open for the week.
    • RSI-21 is around 45
    • At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 11:30 PM
  • The Bollinger Band has been contracting a bit since 6:30 AM
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, November 28, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume.

The major indices gapped down at the open, and then most traded lower for the rest of the day. Al S&P sectors closed down.

From Briefing.com:

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