Directional Bias For The Day:
- The odds are for a sideways to a down day – watch for a break above 4064.50 and a break below 4048.50 for clarity
- The major economic data report is due during the day:
- Final Wholesale Inventories ( -0.4% est.; prev. -0.4%) at 10:00 AM
- Fed Chair Powell’s Semi-Annual Testimony to the Senate at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4030.28, 4009.91, and 3995.17
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4060.56, 4078.49, and 4081.16
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4064.50, the high at 4:00 AM, a break below 4054.25, the low at 3:00, and a break below 4043.50, the low at 6:45 AM on Monday
Pre-Open
- On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4052.25, and the index closed at 4048.42 – a spread of about +3.75 points; the futures closed at 4052.50; the fair value is -0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.50, Dow by +23, and NASDAQ by +35.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Hong Kong were down, and Mumbai was closed
- European markets are mixed – the UK, Germany, and France are higher; Spain, Italy, Switzerland, and STOXX 600 are lower
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher
- Precious metals are mixed
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Soft commodities are mixed
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.983, up +2.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.913%, down -6.4 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.901%, up +17.6 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.918, down from -0.770
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at -0.070, down from 0.022
- VIX
- At 18.70 @ 6:15 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 23.63 on February 22; low = 18.11 on February 15
- Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
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Daily |
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Previous Session
Major indices gapped up at the open and traded higher until Noon, when they turned around and traded lower for the rest of the day. Most indices made small Doji-like candles, indicating pause or indecisiveness.
From Briefing.com:
[…] Even at midday, when the main indices traded near their best levels of the day, decliners led advancers by a 4-to-3 margin at the NYSE and a 5-to-3 margin at the Nasdaq.
[…]The 2-yr note yield, which stood at 4.83% before the stock market opened, rose five basis points to 4.91%. The 10-yr note yield, which stood at 3.90% before the stock market opened, rose two basis points to 3.98%.
The main indices spent most of the afternoon in a slow grind lower, ultimately settling near their lows for the day. At the close, decliners led advancers by a roughly 2-to-1 margin at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
Roughly half of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with a gain, but moves in either direction were modest in scope. The only sector to move more than 1.0% was materials (-1.7%),
[…]The Russell 2000 fell 1.5% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 dropped 1.2%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +11.6% YTD
- Russell 2000: +7.9% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +7.9% YTD
- S&P 500: +5.4% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.9% YTD
Today’s economic data was limited to the January Factory Orders, which declined 1.6% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus -1.8%) following a downwardly revised 1.7% increase (from 1.8%) in December. Shipments of manufactured goods increased 0.7% month-over-month after declining 0.6% in December.
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC +0.3%
- Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Shanghai -0.2%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +0.74 @ 80.53
- Nat Gas -0.39 @ 2.75
- Gold +0.70 @ 1854.90
- Silver -0.12 @ 21.13
- Copper +0.02 @ 4.08
