Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are little changed at 9:15 AM, moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Tuesday between 4041.50 and 4022.75
• The market is awaiting the FOMC decision and the press conference
• The odds are for a sideways to an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4041.50 or a break below 4022.75 for clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • FOMCE Economic Projections at 2:00 PM
  • Federal Funds Rate ( 5.00% est.; prev. 4.75%) at 2:00 PM
  • FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
  • FOMCE Press Conference at 2:30 PM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3995.08, 3971.19, and 3956.27
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4017.81, 4047.00, and 4077.84
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4041.50, a high at 7:15 AM,  and a break below 4022.75, a low at 4:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4038.50, and the index closed at 4002.87 – a spread of about +35.50 points; the futures closed at 4035.75; the fair value is +2.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.75, Dow up by +29, and NASDAQ down by -1.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.606, down -36.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.737%, down -15.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.166%, down -73.5 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.560, up from -0.926
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.131, up from -0.087
• VIX
  • At 21.01 @ 9:0 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 3
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, March 21, in mostly lower volume.  Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in higher volume.

The major indices gapped up at the open. NASDAQ Composite closed its gap, but S&P 500 did not. The indices closed near the high for the day.

All but three S&P sectors – Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Utilities – closed up.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The main indices maintained a position in positive territory throughout today’s session, led by gains in the bank stocks. With today’s move, the S&P 500 recouped the entirety of the ground that had been lost since March 8 when the SVB Financial blowup started to hit the scene. […] The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) rose 5.3% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 5.8%. […] The 2-yr note yield rose 26 basis points to 4.18% and the 10-yr note yield rose 13 basis points to 3.61%. Nasdaq Composite: +13.3% YTD S&P 500: +4.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +0.9% YTD Russell 2000: +1.1% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.8% YTD […] Existing home sales surged 14.5% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.16 million) versus an unrevised 4.00 million in January. Sales increased on a month-over-month basis in February for the first time in 13 months. Total sales in February were down 22.6% from a year ago. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +1.8%, FTSE +1.8%, CAC +1.4% Asia: Nikkei market closed, Hang Seng +1.4%, Shanghai +0.6% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.81 @ 69.48 Nat Gas +0.09 @ 2.45 Gold -41.80 @ 1941.30 Silver -0.25 @ 22.40 Copper +0.04 @ 4.00