Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM – declined more than 60 points from the 3:45 AM high of 3998.25, moving sideways to up since 6:00 AM
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3977.25 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Durable Goods Orders ( -1.0% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. -4.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core Durable Goods Orders ( 0.0% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.8%) at 8:30 AM
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI ( 47.0 est.; prev. 47.3) at 9:45 AM
  • Flash Services PMI ( 50.3 est.; prev. 50.6) at 9:45 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3901.27, 3864.11, and 3838.24
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3919.05, 3963.54, and 4007.66
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 3977.25, a high at 5:00 AM,  and a break below 3937.50, a low at 8:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 3975.75, and the index closed at 3948.72 – a spread of about +27.00 points; the futures closed at 3978.00; the fair value is -2.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -28.50, Dow by -286, and NASDAQ by -57.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed lower
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.313, down -61.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.630%, down -24.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.846%, down -122.4 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.533, up from -1.145
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.317, up from -0.054
• VIX
  • At 24.79 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 19.94 on March 22
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday, March 23, in mixed volume. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and NYSE Composite closed down. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume.

Most of the indices made Doji or similar indecisive candles. All but two S&P sectors – Technology and Communication services – closed down.

From Briefing.com:

The stock market started the session on a decidedly upbeat note, attempting to recover some of the sharp declines registered yesterday. The upside momentum started to dissipated, though, after the S&P 500 briefly tipped above the 4,000 level at its high for the day. […] Ultimately, the main indices closed in the green, but well off their highs for day, thanks to notable strength in some heavily-weighted components. By the close, most mega cap stocks maintained a leadership position while the broader market deteriorated. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) was up 1.1% versus a 0.3% decline in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). […] Only two of the S&P 500 sectors were able to close with a gain — information technology (+1.7%) and communication services (+1.8%) — while the energy (-1.4%), utilities (-1.0%), and financials (-0.7%) fell to the bottom of the pack. The 2-yr note yield fell 11 basis points today to 3.78% and the 10-yr note yield fell nine basis points to 3.41%. Nasdaq Composite: +12.6% YTD S&P 500: +2.8% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -1.8% YTD Russell 2000: -2.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -3.1% YTD […] Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 18 decreased by 1,000 to 191,000 (Briefing.com consensus 204,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 11 increased by 14,000 to 1.694 million from last week’s revised level of 1.680 million (from 1.684 million). […] Q4 current account balance rose to -$206.8 billion from a revised -$219 billion (from -$217.1 billion). New home sales increased 1.1% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 650,000) from a downwardly revised 633,000 (from 670,000) in January. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 19.0%. […] Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a draw of 72 bcf versus a draw of 58 bcf last week. […] 8:30 ET: February Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus 1.6%; prior -4.5%) and Durable Orders ex-transportation (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.7%) 9:45 ET: Preliminary March IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (prior 47.3) and preliminary March IHS Markit Services PMI (prior 50.6) Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.0%, FTSE -0.9%, CAC +0.1% Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng +2.3%, Shanghai +0.6% Commodities:  Crude Oil -1.10 @ 69.69 Nat Gas -0.07 @ 2.27 Gold +45.20 @ 1996.70 Silver +0.47 @ 23.28 Copper +0.07 @ 4.11