Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM – trending down since 4:00 Pm on Monday, forming an upsloping flag since 4:15 AM
• The odds are for a sideways to a down day – watch for a break above 4148.50 and a break below 4130.00 for clarity.
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • HPI ( 0.5% vs. -0.1% est.; prev. 2.6%) at 9:00 AM
  • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI ( 0.4% vs. -0.1% est.; prev. 2.6%) at 9:00 AM
  • CB Consumer Confidence ( 104.1 est.; prev. 104.2) at 10:00 AM
  • New Home Sales ( 633K est.; prev. 640K) at 10:00 AM
  • Richmond Manufacturing Index ( -8 est.; prev. -5) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4113.20, 4099.40, and 4086.94
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4142.41, 4148.57, and 4162.57
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4148.50, the high at 2:00 AM, and a break below 4130.00, the low at 4:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4160.50, and the index closed at 4137.04 – a spread of about +23.50 points; the futures closed at 4159.50; the fair value is -1.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -17.75, Dow by -68, and NASDAQ by -51.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Mumbai were up, and Sydney was closed
• European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland is higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.426, up +1.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.666%, up +4.0 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.090%, up +7.4 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.664, down from -0.601
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.240, up from +0.211
• VIX
  • At 17.53 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 25.21 on March 24; low = 16.14 on November 4, 2021
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, April 24, in lower volume. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 closed lower.

The major indices opened flat and moved up, then declined, and then again advanced to close with little change from the previous day’s close.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) was down 0.2% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose 0.2% and the market-cap weighted S&P 500 was up 0.1%. Roughly half of the S&P 500 sectors logged a gain led by energy (+1.5%), […] At the close, advancers led decliners by a slim margin at the NYSE while decliners outpaced advancers by a 13-to-9 margin at the Nasdaq. […] The 2-yr note yield fell three basis points to 4.13% and the 10-yr note yield fell six basis points to 3.52%. Nasdaq Composite: +15.0% YTD S&P 500: +7.8% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +2.8% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.2% YTD Russell 2000: +1.6% YTD […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE -0.0%, CAC -0.0% Asia: Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Shanghai -0.8% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.85 @ 78.71 Nat Gas +0.03 @ 2.25 Gold +8.70 @ 1999.80 Silver +0.20 @ 25.29 Copper -0.03 @ 3.95