Directional Bias For The Day:
- The odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to a down move from the pre-open levels around 4100.00 – watch for a break below 4104.75 and a break below 4190.75 for clarity.
- The major economic data reports due during the day:
- Advanced GDP ( 1.1% vs. 2.0% est.; prev. 2.6%) at 8:30 AM
- Advanced GDP Price Index ( 4.0% vs. 3.7% est.; prev. 3.9%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims ( 230K vs. 247K est.; prev. 246K) at 8:30 AM
- Pending Home Sales ( 0.6% est.; prev. 0.8%) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4060.88, 4049.35, and 4032.10
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4089.67, 4115.12, and 4126.43
- The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4104.75, the high at 8:30 AM, and a break below 4090.75, the low at 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4074.75, and the index closed at 4055.99 – a spread of about +18.75 points; the futures closed at 4076.00; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +23.0, Dow by +157, and NASDAQ by +128.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney and Singapore were down
- European markets are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are lower
- Industrial metals are mostly higher
- Soft commodities are mixed
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.484, up +6.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.733%, up +8.0 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 3.945%, down -2.5 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.461, up from -0.549
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.249, up from +0.232
- VIX
- At 17.93 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 25.21 on March 24; low = 16.17 on April 19
- Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
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Daily |
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Previous Session
The major indices opened up but declined during the first hour of trading. They then advanced and tested the day’s high by Noon, when they turned down and traded lower for the rest of the day. All but one S&P sector – Technology – closed lower.
From Briefing.com:
[…] The major indices closed the session in mixed fashion, yet today’s trade skewed negative under the surface.
[…]Still, the overall vibe in the market was downbeat as evidenced by a 1.0% decline in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP).
[…]The 2-yr note yield, which saw 3.86% today, fell three basis points to 3.92%. The 10-yr note yield, which fell to 3.38% earlier, settled up four basis points to 3.43%.
[…][…]
- Nasdaq Composite: +13.3% YTD
- S&P 500: +5.6% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.5% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: UNCH YTD
- Russell 2000: -1.8% YTD
[…]
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 3.7%; Prior -8.8%
- March Durable Orders 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior was revised to -1.2% from 1.0%; March Durable Goods – ex transportation 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%); Prior was revised to -0.3% from 0.0%
- […]
- March Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$84.6 bln; Prior was revised to -$92.0 bln from -$91.6 bln
- March Adv. Retail Inventories 0.7%; Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.8%
- March Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.2%
- The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 5.05 million barrels after last week’s draw of 4.58 million barrels.
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -0.9%
- Asia: Nikkei -0.7%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Shanghai -0.0%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil -2.71 @ 74.36
- Nat Gas -0.17 @ 2.12
- Gold -9.80 @ 1995.30
- Silver -0.09@ 24.86
- Copper +0.03 @ 3.87
